Here we go again!

The Guardian has an article about the sub-prime market in US corporate debt which complements the news of slowing global growth wonderfully:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/subprime-timebomb-back-companies-lighting-the-fuse

Oh hey, I'm not so bad at this. Congrats Ulisse!

My guess for next year would be $2,500, for what it's worth.

Economists predicted the likelihood of a global recession in 2007 at two in a billion - it was a "six sigma" event. This despite the fact that economics is essentially a history of recessions and depressions. It's not that everyone is stupid - it's that they come to worship the model more than what they're modeling. I would argue that this weakness can also afflict physicists.

I suspect that economists may be more susceptible to this pitfall then physicists. The theoretical underpinnings of economics, as you point out in your discussion of theoretically assumptions and practical results, are purely ideological. Economists whose work reflects a world view which is fundamentally optimistic about capitalism are more likely to insist that major recessions--events which cast doubt on capitalisms benevolent nature--are unlikely (if not impossible, the way many economists talked about a financial crisis in 2007).

$3,220, at the bottom of the trough after the current bubble pops.

PM sent. Thanks!

Hi, here I am. How can I claim this?

That's awesome! When I was 19, I had a staff-like position on a mayoral campaign in my town too. That was also my freshman year of college, so lots of changes all around.

If I'm honest, I'd probably spend an inordinate amount of my free time at the library if I didn't have a computer. Though I'd probably still be reading more books then I am now, which seems like a positive.

I agree completely that society needs to get better at using technology responsibly. Everything in moderation is probably the healthiest stance.

Traveling? Moving off the grid? Willpower? What's prompting the change (if you don't mind my asking)?

Financial considerations. Once my current devices break down, I likely won't be able to replace them. Such are the joys of becoming independent. But like I said, I'm starting to see the bright side of living with pre-1991 technology.

I'm aware of the immigration crisis. If Golden Dawn came to power, we wouldn't see rival Greek and Immigrant armies, like in Yugoslavia. You'd probably see the ongoing anti-immigration violence heighten a bit, but the country would break apart in ideological civil war before XA could begin some kind of mass-murder campaign. If we're looking for historical analogies, Spain in the 30s fits the Greek worse-case scenario a lot better than the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Greece isn't a multi-ethnic state; there are no competing national identities within it borders and no threat of ethnic cleansing.

Sorry about the delayed reply, I don't seem to get notifications for second-level replies.

We're getting closer!

I don't see how either of those apply to the current situation.

I say rag with love. But magazines like Jacobin are definitely pushing a particular ideological point of view, which I guess is a different type of fringe then the Sun.

/r/UkraineConflict is good too. I guess the way the war seems less "hot" to me means it hasn't drawn my attention as much. I also have a big soft spot for the PYD and the Rojava revolution.

And thanks for giving us Gylfi! Next season we'll be finishing ahead of you lot in the table ;)

Inertia, I suppose. I went to a bike shop in town and was scared away by the prices. I only have $20 or $30 to spend on a bike. I checked Craiglist and didn't see anything usable for sail; haven't really thought about buying a bike since then. I think I'll look back into getting one once I move into my new place in August.

Yeah, coups are pretty terrible, as a rule. But even another Junta would be better for Greece than a Golden Dawn government, I think.

This sounds similar to the bodyweight exercise routines I'd see on /r/bodyweightfitness over on reddit. You wouldn't happen to be/have been active over there, would you? Regardless, I have serious respect. Handstands? Crazy. Awesome. I aspire to be able to do that one day.

I mean, US companies are pretty heavily invested in China. Think of the number of tech companies that have Chinese Foxconn factories in their supply chains.

They have big debt payments due in October if I remember correctly. I wouldn't be surprised if they defaulted then. They'd likely be joining Greece, Ukraine, and Puerto Rico as sovereign (or semi-sovereign) nations in default. I"m concerned we're rushing headlong into the sovereign debt crisis that we seemed perpetually "on the brink of" in 2012.

That's so awesome! My dream is to fly to Buenos Aires and backpack around Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. I know those are different places from Mexico, but I'm curious, how were you received as a backpacker? Were people friendly? How much Spanish did you know before going? And did you go with friends?

We've got Eder; success is guaranteed!

Yet tens of thousands of people from around the world are leaving their homes, their jobs, their families (or worse yet, bring their families along) to live in this "Caliphate." I've tried to understand the mentality, I get the longing for the "glory days" of old, the desire to escape the oppression (or perceived oppression) of living in a non-Muslim society. But really, who the hell would want to live in a place where people are mutilated, tortured, killed in accordance with law? That, I can't understand.

I tried teaching myself Arabic a while back. I found the youtube channel Learn Arabic With Maha was very useful. Maha is a Palestinian expat living in Italy who teaches Arabic for a living. She's a lot of fun; even if you can't understand Arabic, her videos are still enjoyable to watch.

I must have poorly phrased that sentence. I meant to say that yes, there is indeed popular support for gay marriage, which is great. But if the people clear support a policy change, then that policy change should be enacted at the legislative level according to our constitution. Policy-making shouldn't happen through the judiciary in a healthy democracy. Unfortunately, in my eyes, and in that of many conservative lawmakers (I suspect), this decision sets a precedent which legitimizing future judicial law-making. The majority opinion sounded great but, to my reading, was not grounded in a sound interpretation of the constitution. My concern is that the same pattern of reasoning employed by this majority could be used by a future majority to do something you and I would both find disturbing.

I don't think I'm that pragmatic, as you put it. I think I'd just be more depressed. So I'm looking for something else to do. And I'm trying to rip that market logic out of me. I'm trying to get to a place where ending an introspective post like this with the phrase "but what is that good for?" feels out of place, irrelevant. I'm not there yet, but I think I'm on the path. Another thread on Hubski has gotten me considering taking next summer off from school to go backpacking through South America. A change of scenery should do some good. Learning a second language to fluency has to be useful. And I hear Chile, Uruguay, and the rest of that region has a vibrant anti-capitalist scene.

Might want to edit your quote a bit....

I was on IRC for that chat and ended up registering #hubski on irc.mibbit.net as a back-up. So that's an option, if freenode doesn't work out.