Here we go again!

The Guardian has an article about the sub-prime market in US corporate debt which complements the news of slowing global growth wonderfully:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/subprime-timebomb-back-companies-lighting-the-fuse

Oh hey, I'm not so bad at this. Congrats Ulisse!

My guess for next year would be $2,500, for what it's worth.

Economists predicted the likelihood of a global recession in 2007 at two in a billion - it was a "six sigma" event. This despite the fact that economics is essentially a history of recessions and depressions. It's not that everyone is stupid - it's that they come to worship the model more than what they're modeling. I would argue that this weakness can also afflict physicists.

I suspect that economists may be more susceptible to this pitfall then physicists. The theoretical underpinnings of economics, as you point out in your discussion of theoretically assumptions and practical results, are purely ideological. Economists whose work reflects a world view which is fundamentally optimistic about capitalism are more likely to insist that major recessions--events which cast doubt on capitalisms benevolent nature--are unlikely (if not impossible, the way many economists talked about a financial crisis in 2007).

$3,220, at the bottom of the trough after the current bubble pops.

Thank you so much! This is incredible, I wasn't sure how I was going to cover January rent. Thank you again!

PM sent. Thanks!

Hi, here I am. How can I claim this?

I just realized someone on here muted me, and I'm not sure what I did wrong :(

That's awesome! When I was 19, I had a staff-like position on a mayoral campaign in my town too. That was also my freshman year of college, so lots of changes all around.

If I'm honest, I'd probably spend an inordinate amount of my free time at the library if I didn't have a computer. Though I'd probably still be reading more books then I am now, which seems like a positive.

I agree completely that society needs to get better at using technology responsibly. Everything in moderation is probably the healthiest stance.

Traveling? Moving off the grid? Willpower? What's prompting the change (if you don't mind my asking)?

Financial considerations. Once my current devices break down, I likely won't be able to replace them. Such are the joys of becoming independent. But like I said, I'm starting to see the bright side of living with pre-1991 technology.

I'm aware of the immigration crisis. If Golden Dawn came to power, we wouldn't see rival Greek and Immigrant armies, like in Yugoslavia. You'd probably see the ongoing anti-immigration violence heighten a bit, but the country would break apart in ideological civil war before XA could begin some kind of mass-murder campaign. If we're looking for historical analogies, Spain in the 30s fits the Greek worse-case scenario a lot better than the breakup of Yugoslavia.

Greece isn't a multi-ethnic state; there are no competing national identities within it borders and no threat of ethnic cleansing.

Sorry about the delayed reply, I don't seem to get notifications for second-level replies.

We're getting closer!

I don't see how either of those apply to the current situation.

Now that Europe is trying oh-so-hard to counterbalance the USA, Germany is insisting that they can't waste money on those spendthrift Greeks because they know that if Greece goes to shit it will be American troops that will march on Athens.

You're going to have to explain this. I can't imagine a scenario where the US occupies Greece.

I say rag with love. But magazines like Jacobin are definitely pushing a particular ideological point of view, which I guess is a different type of fringe then the Sun.

Yeah, coups are pretty terrible, as a rule. But even another Junta would be better for Greece than a Golden Dawn government, I think.

Me too. A contact of mine in Greece, for what it's worth, is convinced that Golden Dawn holding any power is impossible, that the military dislikes them and that there would be a coup if they took power. He's a Major in the Greek army, though I believe with the way the Greek army is structure, that just means he's been in the reserve officer corp for a while and has fucked up; I don't know how much influence he has. But I'm hopeful.

Golden Dawn, a literal neo-nazi party, consistently polls third (around 10-12%) and has a pretty strong street presence, though all of its MPs are in jail. ANEL is a "patriotic right" party which is in government as SYRIZA's junior coalition partner. And then there are also persistent rumors of generals/retired generals forming a new right-wing party, though that never seems to materialize. So the far-right certainly could come to power, though if it tried to invade any of its neighbors, it'd almost certainly get slapped down.

I mean, US companies are pretty heavily invested in China. Think of the number of tech companies that have Chinese Foxconn factories in their supply chains.

They have big debt payments due in October if I remember correctly. I wouldn't be surprised if they defaulted then. They'd likely be joining Greece, Ukraine, and Puerto Rico as sovereign (or semi-sovereign) nations in default. I"m concerned we're rushing headlong into the sovereign debt crisis that we seemed perpetually "on the brink of" in 2012.

We've got Eder; success is guaranteed!

/r/UkraineConflict is good too. I guess the way the war seems less "hot" to me means it hasn't drawn my attention as much. I also have a big soft spot for the PYD and the Rojava revolution.

And thanks for giving us Gylfi! Next season we'll be finishing ahead of you lot in the table ;)

Yet tens of thousands of people from around the world are leaving their homes, their jobs, their families (or worse yet, bring their families along) to live in this "Caliphate." I've tried to understand the mentality, I get the longing for the "glory days" of old, the desire to escape the oppression (or perceived oppression) of living in a non-Muslim society. But really, who the hell would want to live in a place where people are mutilated, tortured, killed in accordance with law? That, I can't understand.

/r/SyrianCivilWar has been my source to follow that conflict (and its spillover) for years now. I honestly don't know if I can ever really leave reddit so long as I maintain an interest in following that conflict. Though it may be better for my own health to not be so invested in a foreign war. Following a bloody war on the internet, flipping through images of dead soldiers and decapitated prisoners is both horrifying and desensitizing. I'll try to stop visiting there.

On a lighter note, /r/Soccer has by far the best soccer community I'll come across. I don't really know of another place to follow /r/SwanseaCity (though, of course, once the season starts, I'll be able to watch the Jacks on NBCSports).

Greece defaulted[1] on a loan from the IMF tuesday. That same day, they spent the last of the most recent tranche of bailout funds from the EU; they've been out of cash all week. It's not just the government that's broke. Banks are completely illiquid. All week, we've witnessed scenes of empty ATM's and pensioners queuing outside shuttered banks. The situation is desperate.

What a "no" vote would do, effectively, is end the negotiations for another bailout, which at the moment are "on hold." The Greek government would be forced to deal with the cash flow situation on their own; by printing their own currency rather than importing Euros. Banks and ATMs would be filled with drachmas, a currency created out of thin air, and thus unlikely to be trusted by the majority of Greeks; foreign investors will certainly have nothing to do with it. This causes numerous problems. Hyperinflation is a real concern. Perhaps the biggest worry of Greek planners though is imports. Greece has a big trade imbalance and relies on imports for crucial goods such as food, fuel, and medicine. If foreign exporters aren't willing to accept drachmas, and Greece is unable to obtain Euros through the credit markets, Greeks will be in a very tough spot.

The good news for Greece is that the crisis which would ensue from pulling out of the Euro should eventually come to an end, as opposed to the austerity regime which appears designed to extract wealth from Greeks for the foreseeable future. Default and withdrawal from the Euro would cause severe pain over the next year or two, but once the drachma becomes accepted, a lot of the immediate problems should ease. Moreover, a central government empowered to spend, rather than beholded to paying European creditors, would have the capital to kickstart the economy through various Keynesian programs (think FDR's New Deal). Greece has a massive unemployed population, and a number of economic needs which could be fulfilled by domestic industry. It's only the current debt extraction arrangement which keeps people unemployed and wealth flowing out of a country. A Greece unbeholden to foreign creditors would be able to put its people to work.

As far as the international effects of a Greek pullout, most pundits agree that the economic effects should be minimal. Most of Greece's debt is held by EU nations; very little of it is tied up in banks (and most of those banks are Greek banks who would be crashing on Greek depositors). Though UK and US banks have stepped up their investment in the Greek banking system since 2012 (the last time "grexit" was imminent, when "contagion" was a feared buzzword) the threat of an immediate European financial crisis appears to be very low. The main concern is the political ramifications. Greece's decision to jettison the Euro will serve as a precedent to other European countries which experience hardship. The integrity of the European Union is at stake.

[1] Technically they're just "in arrears" since the IMF doesn't consider a state to have officially defaulted until a month after missing a payment, but that's besides the point.

This is scary. I don't see how $19 billion more of investment will make a difference, if pledging to invest China's centi-billion pension funds didn't calm the markets. The ship is sinking; that's abundantly clear. What isn't so certain is what the after-shocks will be like. I'm really concerned that we're witnessing the start of the next global recession. Particularly when western governments and central banks are woefully unprepared to combat another crash.