The real problem is that in order to be profitable in the long run they'd have to dominate their sphere. I'm already getting groupon-like offers from Amazon, and I'm already getting groupon-like offers from Google. I'm pretty sure both Amazon and Google are playing with it to see if there's any point, but either one of them could annihilate Groupon without breaking a sweat. The only strategy that makes any sense for a Groupon investor is hoping Yahoo or eBay pays way the fuck too much for it in a desperation move because they were too stupid or lazy to come up with something like it or "as good as it" on their own, a-la Paypal, only without Groupon being the dominant piece of the market. That said, it's trading at bloody 26 right now.
They sell coupons. Everyone has heard of Groupon. Where can they possibly go from there? The types of businesses that can do a Groupon are limited. It's not like my local Ford dealer is going to have a Groupon on Focuses. Surprise, surprise, here's my local Groupon today: Relaxation & Ultimate Bodywork (RUB) – Ann Arbor How many massages do you need? This might say something interesting about the massage industry, however. This stock will be played as it goes up, and down, and down. The investors got theirs, and now the market makers have a new toy to play with for a while. Fuck, I'm going to start seeing Google Offers in my G+, aren't I?
Same with services. How many massages do you need? Well, if your insurance covers it, sometimes two a week. Even if you don't, some people will treat themselves to a massage every week. Mani/pedi? Same deal. Thing is, though, this business model is covered quite nicely by junk mail. As far as I'm concerned, Groupon - even more than Facebook - is an example of the dotcom bubble reinflating. This shit can't continue.
I had a friend that owned a bar and always had a $1 PBR on tap. The bar next to his charged 3$ a PBR. The bar next to him was always busier and the majority of the people at his competitors bar were drinking PBR's. Why didn't they come next door to him? Because his service sucked. Too many merchants are looking for a "silver bullet" to help drive revenue. It's no secret though, focus on your product and your service, throw in some targeted marketing and good things will happen. Groupon and FB pages for the most part don't do shit.