By the time you finished reading this article, more advances were made in the field of human knowledge than you will be able to comprehend in five years. The rate at which our society generates change is staggering, and technology is the end result of that change. Found a new polymer? Great, if its cheap enough and easy enough to mass produce, we will have it on the market and in goods in a few years. But people won't notice it. You see, the changes that happen most often are just improvements on the changes we have already made to society. That's why a battery-powered car really won't catch on like people think it will; its too radically different from being able to fill up a car with portable fuel. Why do you think hydrogen is so appealing as a fuel source? Because its only slightly different than what we already have. Basic human society has not changed since the Industrial Revolution. By which I mean the society in which you work for regular wages, have currency, have relationships which tend to exist in areas further than a few houses down from you, in which children are considered economic burdens, not benefits, in which information can be gained if you have the money for it, and in which the lifestyle you wish for can be gained with money or credit. And let's not forget the ability to travel the world in a relatively short time. Cars? Hasn't changed much, not at this really fundamental level. Now you can just travel more at your leisure; it hasn't changed how the family is created, how your job will function (regular wages are still here) or really anything fundamental. Neither does flight, nor chemical processing, nor electronics, nor the internet. But what those technologies have done is vastly change the way in which we receive those fundamental aspects of technology. The car? Well you can now drive to work in an emergency, you can leave whenever you feel like it; you no longer have to live near a train station after all. Flight? Well how else are you getting all of that fresh food you eat, even though your notions of meals are from Moorish Spain in the 1400s. Chemical processing gives you most of what you own, especially plastics, and electronics and the internet VASTLY change HOW we receive the information we pay for and what sort of information we receive, but do nothing to the fact that we are still paying to receive information. So the author has a point. He just oversimplifies it, then runs in the opposite direction, and most likely touched upon the point accidentally. If you would like to hear someone who say, actually knows what they're talking about, well, James Burke is a technological historian and gives a much better view on things. By better, I mean more comprehensive, intelligent, and interesting.
Saying "silverware is a mesopotamian technology" may sound insightful, but it's also a lie. Henry Patroski spent a full chapter on the fork in the Evolution of Useful Things. "Silverware" as we know it is only about 150 years old. More than that, its evolution is entirely traceable and observable. This is why I hate Nic Talleb - he likes to wave his hands and say "disruption!" when in fact, history is quite clearly a jagged stairstep of piecemeal innovation.
I'll give him a pass on the silverware thing because I think what he is trying to say (in so many words) is that humans have been using tools to eat with for a long time now. Or at least we think so. There is in fact so much about the human record that anthropologists have simply just inferred without any real proof. Even 'Lucy' has yet to be officially identified as a female. We just think she was. Describing history as a jagged stairstep is very helpful and quite correct. The truth is, most anthropologists like to regard their own discoveries as a paradigm shift in evolution mostly to garner respect from the academic community when in reality it only appears that way because so little of the fossil record has been discovered. My issue with the article is that I disregard his idea that efficiency isn't a technology. He describes new running shoes as technology which reverses technology, but eschews the intelligence in such a product. Knowledge is technology, because knowledge is inherent in the tool. But mostly though, his writing just isn't much fun. Innovation wasn't born out of content, nor pragmatism for that matter. A boy can dream can't he?
My problem (one of my many problems - I've had f'ing Black Swan thrown in my face so many times I've got hives from the feathers) is that in the first few paragraphs he says 'the future will be the present minus some stuff' while nearly simultaneously saying 'nobody has ever properly predicted all the disruptive shit the future brings.' Meanwhile, glass is ancient so nothing changes, never mind, oh, plastic water bottles. "Had someone in 1950 predicted the same thing..." dude, science fiction writers have been predicting meals for a hundred years and usually they introduce some odd flavor and leave everything else the same. Then he bitches that we don't have flying cars while listening to himself talk for 1000 words. I think people like Nick Talleb because they aren't clever enough to notice that he has nothing to say... but he says it gregariously.