As for blinking my guess is nobody yet. Even though the balloon loan expires the banks have been playing the extend and pretend game on distressed assets. They will modify the loan one year at a time at previous rates to prevent having to take losses. The clearing event will occur then a bunch of regional banks get liquidated for other reasons and someone acquires their assets for 20-30 cents per dollar. Then they will sell them to you for 50 and make stupid profits. It’s a slow process and it hasn’t started yet so I don’t see how we get there in less than 2 years.
I dunno. There's a bunch of shit out there that hasn't moved in 20-30 years. I'm looking at a property right now where the owner has been trying to offload it for 4 years now but they've decided they're not coming back from overseas so they dropped their ask 30%. They're at full gravy on whatever they can get and general consensus is rates aren't coming back down for 18 months. If you wanna do something else you gotta blink. I'm told that one (1) commercial sale happened in Bellevue last quarter.
25-50% of book value seems to be what a lot of CRE is worth but it’s really hard to get folks to admit that. Prices can change drastically with rates and a lot of current owners are praying for lower rates. At least till the election seems like risk of hikes is low but decent chance of a cut has fueled the hopium. Retail house prices are driving by the nesting drive so they are less in touch with reality but they will be more likely to clear with a forcing function like job cuts as there won’t be extend and pretend on the consumer side.
Maybe that's the difference. Nobody in the commercial circles thinks there's going to be a cut in the next 18 months at least. I've got a pull from a title company showing every sale and mortgage going back to 2018 within 3 miles of a property I'm looking at. They're asking $1.2m, every comp you can find says $750k. They bought for $560k in 2015.