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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  529 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Interest-Only Loans Helped Commercial Property Boom. Now They’re Coming Due.

and it will happen with a quickness





uhsguy  ·  529 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes and no. The loans are callable from my recollection but nobody wants to call an asset that’s more than worthless. CRE that’s selling right now is going for a steep (70%) discount in sf and other metros, so while it could get forced to liquidate it’s unlikely to happen until the owner walks away and taking possession is the best of the shitty options. It’s better to restructure the deal and play hide the losses for a couple more cycles.

kleinbl00  ·  529 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Dude if nobody is writing leases in all of Bellevue the minute something ticks, it's all going to tock.

San Fran is its own clusterfuck. Hilton is about to walk away from Union Square FFS. NY is fukt in a different way. Deals need to get done in the course of normal business and they ain't - when they do, it'll all happen at once.

b_b  ·  528 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My brother is in the commercial finance business and just got laid off yesterday. Survived the whole financial crises 15 yrs ago unscathed, so I guess the banks are pretty wise to the reckoning that’s coming.

kleinbl00  ·  528 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Small bank, big bank, mid-sized bank?

b_b  ·  528 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Big. Wells Fargo.

kleinbl00  ·  528 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah that's about as big as it gets. I hope he lands on his feet somewhere less evil.

b_b  ·  528 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thanks. I think he does too. He's too much of a pothead to have any ambition to change jobs without a reason to, and he only ever started working for that shitty company when they bought the company he used to work for. So while I'm sure it's frightening in the short term to have three kids and no job, it will be liberating eventually.