Commercial real estate pricing is some sort of mass hallucination event. Everyone from investors to banks to developers. All the players are mostly investing with other peoples money and so there isn’t a force that naturally check prices back down to reality. Right now we’re in phase where wile e coyote has run off a cliff but hasn’t realized that it’s time to fall, but it’s going to happen eventually. Someone will need cash, have to sell and price discovery will happen.
Yes and no. The loans are callable from my recollection but nobody wants to call an asset that’s more than worthless. CRE that’s selling right now is going for a steep (70%) discount in sf and other metros, so while it could get forced to liquidate it’s unlikely to happen until the owner walks away and taking possession is the best of the shitty options. It’s better to restructure the deal and play hide the losses for a couple more cycles.
Dude if nobody is writing leases in all of Bellevue the minute something ticks, it's all going to tock. San Fran is its own clusterfuck. Hilton is about to walk away from Union Square FFS. NY is fukt in a different way. Deals need to get done in the course of normal business and they ain't - when they do, it'll all happen at once.
Thanks. I think he does too. He's too much of a pothead to have any ambition to change jobs without a reason to, and he only ever started working for that shitty company when they bought the company he used to work for. So while I'm sure it's frightening in the short term to have three kids and no job, it will be liberating eventually.