On January 1, 2020, mk and wasoxygen agreed to a wager regarding global average sea level in the year 2040. They agreed that the loser of the wager would send 1 ETH to the winner.
mk bet that on January 1, 2040 the satellite measure of global average sea level, according to NASA, would be 402 or more millimeters higher than the January 1993 satellite measure of global average sea level.
wasoxygen bet that on January 1, 2040 the satellite measure of global average sea level, according to NASA, would be less than 402 millimeters higher than the January 1993 satellite measure of global average sea level.
When designing the wager, both parties agreed to the NASA website https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ as a reliable data source. However, both parties agree that the website may not persist, and that the best match for "Data source: Satellite sea level observations; Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center" should be used on January, 1 2040.
For posterity, at the time this wager was made, NASA reported the satellite measure of global average sea level to be 95.2 mm higher than the January 1993 measurement. At the time of this post (September 20, 2021) NASA reports the satellite measure of global average sea level to be 99 mm higher than the January 1993 measurement.
Because of course you two made this bet. And I happen to love that at least one of you will be eligible for social security at that point. I truly think this bet is my favorite thing I’ve read on Hubski today (and there’s a helluvah conversation in chat about China, the Chinese Government, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Imperialism, racism, anti-Asian sentiments). I basically love Hubski.
Bryan Caplan has a perfect betting record, so far: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit But he bet Yoram Bauman in 2014 that the pause in global warming observed from 1998 to 2013 would continue another 15 years. I think he will lose that bet. But Caplan gets the last laugh: he predicted that he would lose the bet when he made it: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html For the record, I am not at all expert in sea level change. I’m entering the bet on the basis that your forecast appears to exceed most official projections, which if anything have a tendency to exaggerate the threat IMO. Also, the 3.4 mm/year so far extrapolates to 163 mm by 2040, if my arithmetic is correct. I can imagine more reasons for the trend to accelerate than slow down (though the 25-year trend is barely more than linear), so my best guess for 2040 is 200 mm.
But isn't it usually the case that forecasts are normally proven wrong, mostly because some unrealized third factor was not considered (or known) at the time the prediction was made? Seems like every day there's a heretofore unforeseen factor that has accelerated metric X beyond initial forecasts, and these forecasts need to be recalculated to account for X, as well. (Ice cap melting speed, foliage regrowth after disasters like Mt St Helens or Chernobyl, etc...) Or is this just my impression, and not reality...? For the record, I am not at all expert in sea level change. I’m entering the bet on the basis that your forecast appears to exceed most official projections, which if anything have a tendency to exaggerate the threat IMO.
In this case, one forecast will be right and one will be wrong, depending on whether the final value is above or below 402. Some unanticipated factor could influence the result, or a known factor could have unexpected effects. There is always uncertainty in predictions; if everything were known in advance there would be no value in making forecasts.
The 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report, a "multi-agency effort, representing the first update since 2017, offers projections out to the year 2150". Figure 2.2 provides "observation-based extrapolations using tide-gauge data and five Scenarios, in meters". The sea level values are relative to a baseline of zero meters in the year 2000. The vital signs sea level chart cited for this wager depicts a rise between 1993 and 2000 ranging from a minimum of 19.8 mm (July 2000) to a maximum of 29.4 mm (October 2000). For mk's prediction to come true, a minimum additional 372.6 mm of rise must occur between 2000 and January 2040 (29.4 mm 1993-2000 + 372.6 mm 2000-2040). Table 2.1 shows predicted median values for 2040 ranging from 250 mm (Low scenario) to 350 mm (High scenario). The "likely range" of the High scenario is 180 mm to 390 mm.
