Bryan Caplan has a perfect betting record, so far: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit But he bet Yoram Bauman in 2014 that the pause in global warming observed from 1998 to 2013 would continue another 15 years. I think he will lose that bet. But Caplan gets the last laugh: he predicted that he would lose the bet when he made it: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html For the record, I am not at all expert in sea level change. I’m entering the bet on the basis that your forecast appears to exceed most official projections, which if anything have a tendency to exaggerate the threat IMO. Also, the 3.4 mm/year so far extrapolates to 163 mm by 2040, if my arithmetic is correct. I can imagine more reasons for the trend to accelerate than slow down (though the 25-year trend is barely more than linear), so my best guess for 2040 is 200 mm.