I have a geographic area that pretty much stretches from Everett to Shoreline to Snohomish To Bothell that I've been getting notifications of all new houses since 2007. So I just sort of... know what goes for what. I also have extensive working memory such that, like flashcards, I can remember what price went with what photo. I'm the kind of asshole that recognizes houses that sold in 2018 and can usually remember within 10% what they went for. Seeing a house that I liked that sold in 2015 back on the market is kind of like seeing an old friend again. I am not a pleasant person to play Trivial Pursuit with.
I guess that’s not the trend I noticed. List prices seemed flat but the action seems to be in the price over asking that you would only see after 2-3 month delay or in the 1m+ ranger where houses that were coming down from1.2 to around 1 shot back up to 1.2-1.3
I have watched properties that would go for $650k in Q3-2019 go for $750k in March, $850k in April, $950k in July and $750k in September. What was really interesting is watching all the inventory at $1m-$1.5m sit there from January 2019 to March 2020, then watch it all go, then watch all its friends hop on, then watch jumbo properties that would sit for 13 months at $1.1 go in 48hrs at $1.4 and then we hit late August and they. just. sit. But I saw 3600sqft on half an acre of BNSF frontage waterfront list at $2.7m and go pending in 36 hours yesterday. So we're a long goddamn way from normal. 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 that property would have been between $1.6m and $1.8m and it would have sat for a year. You know shit's crazy when the trailers are going. I watched a fuckin' double-wide list for $150k last week. That's Pacific Palisades shit right there.
Yeah I’ve only noticed one of the trends your talking about but that’s because I’m only looking at a smaller market segment. Honestly have no idea if we’re going to mirror vancover and go sky high or crash down. This market is too weird, so I’m sitting tight for now I don’t want to compete with the craziness
I've been reading your back-and-forth with kleinbl00 with interest. And no, I don't see Seattle going the way of Vancouver (or SF before that), because Vancouver is largely fenced in, like SF is. So the inventory isn't going up significantly because there really isn't anywhere to expand to. I think the Seattle area can easily spread north, east, and south. In that way, it is more like the Silicon Valley area south of SF. I already know people who commute into Seattle from Everett, North Bend, and Enumclaw. And our density and traffic is nowhere near what the Bay Area was like when I left in 1998, and an hour-and-a-half commute (one way) was seen as desirable. I don't think Seattle is anywhere near capacity. So I expect prices will continue to rise steadily, no matter what happens. There's a lot of volatility right now, of course, but in my area (White Center) every house that is sold is knocked down and a multitenant structure/condo goes in. And everything sells in a week. If I was Richard Branson I'd invest in a fleet of foot ferries with electric scooters on board, then open routes to all of the hubs on the Kitsap Peninsula, from Bremerton to Port Townsend. People scoot off the ferry to their work, scoot around town, and then back onto the ferry at the end of the day. Make it a flat fee of like $2000/month for all the ferry trips (with free scooter) you want. Boom.
Vancouver prices have been driven entirely by Chinese investment. From '93-'99 it was Hong Kong wealth setting up anchor ownership so that they could be Canadian when the Hong Kong handover went pear-shaped. From '99-now it's been Chinese oligarchs sheltering their money overseas. There was some spillover to Seattle (which could be seen in the inverse relationship between Vancouver depreciation and Seattle appreciation when Vancouver passed their 15% tax but the Chinese priced it in quickly enough and Vancouver continued to outstrip Seattle. San Francisco prices are driven by geography, tech inequality and rampant NIMBYism. For much the same reason aspiring actors with degrees from Juliard live six to a flop on Fairfax, taking your lumps in tech means putting up with Bay Area pricing for at least long enough to get hired away by somewhere else that values your tour of duty. Both cities, it should be noted, are principal tourist destinations. On the other hand, Seattle is routinely listed near the bottom of tourist cities in the United States. This tends to blunt foreign interest and, as a consequence, foreign investment. California culture celebrates long fucking commutes, though. It's one of the most insufferable aspects of the entire state - "I'm more of a citizen because I commute further than you therefore I want it more." California roads are designed to drive really fucking slowly on in really boring weather; they're parking lots (except the winding mountain roads, which are theme parks). Seattle roads are designed to spend the minimum amount of maintenance on, and generally get less maintenance than that. As a consequence they're narrow, treacherous and require your constant attention. You can smoke a bowl and trudge from Ojai to Pomona in three or four hours and go "whoa we made it let's overpay for coffee" but fuckin' Everett to West Seattle is some Oregon Trail shit and everyone knows it because you'd best be paying attention the entire way. A drive time map of urban California is a lie during the day and a marvel at night; at 3am you can get from LAX to the Palisades in 20 minutes and at 5pm that's gonna be two hours. A drive time map of Seattle is mostly just discouraging. If you can get to the freeway quickly, you can make a great distance on the freeway, except during rush hour. It's a subjectively different experience. We have friends that we visited more when we were in PDR and they were in La Brea than now that we're in Lynnwood and they're in Mukilteo. it was an hour and a half on Sundays to get there but you know what? It's an hour and a half to get anywhere on a Sunday. Now? Fuckin' 20 minutes in the car is enough to get you downtown on a Sunday and why would you want to go downtown we'll meet you halfway. There's a lot more to growth than "is it as shitty as Palo Alto yet."I already know people who commute into Seattle from Everett, North Bend, and Enumclaw. And our density and traffic is nowhere near what the Bay Area was like when I left in 1998, and an hour-and-a-half commute (one way) was seen as desirable.
Yeah. There's no way to get east/west in King or Snohomish counties. Three roads. That's it. If you aren't going north-south, you are screwed. Well... yer screwed anyway, if it is anywhere between 6:AM and 8:PM, but it still ain't California Commute intensity... ROFL!!! That is SO TRUE. Holy crap. I never realized it before that your commute time is badge of Good Citizenship in California... ..."California culture celebrates long fucking commutes, though... "I'm more of a citizen because I commute further than you therefore I want it more."
Some of my least favorite friends felt the need to quote The Californians at us every time they talked to us because obviously we're all airheads with nothing better to talk about than traffic. That is, until I pointed out that Los Angeles doesn't really have weather per se whereas traffic has a more profound influence on the day-to-day life of Angelinos than literally anything else. Angelinos discussing which roads to take or not take and what traffic was like at any given intersection is very much the equivalent of fishermen discussing shoals or river pilots discussing flows past a jetty. So while every normal culture has meaningless chit-chat about the weather, Angelinos have meaningless chit-chat about traffic. Thus, your ability to negotiate that traffic is a fundamental part of your identity and any habits or skills or secrets are very much a part of your social clout. Waze has its haters in no small part because it forced every single skillful navigator to completely relearn the rivers after Google gave all their trade routes to the Stupids. Seattle? "It's raining, we're fucked." "It just stopped raining, we're fucked." "It's snowing, we're ultra-fucked." "That snowstorm? Yeah, I was so fucked." "My weekend would have been fine but the sun was shining so I was fucked." "Folklife was on so downtown was fucked." "Everyone moved out to Snohomish so I5 is fucked past Arlington." "The bridge is cracked so West Seattle is fucked." There is no clevering your way around Seattle traffic, it's just varying levels of pain. You can pass the time by antagonizing other players but even if you tune out there are abrupt stops, gunfighters willing to trade paint in order to gain a car length and landmarks that have suddenly changed so even though you've taken that exit every day for a year you just drove past it because something in your subconscious tripped an error subroutine and now you're going to Kent. California roads are the way they are because California is a land of grift. Someone made a buck on every square foot, which is what he had left after he paid the nine other people their percentage for making the road go left where every bit of common sense would have had it go right. Thus it's an overbuilt miasma of poor planning under perpetual construction. Seattle roads are the way they are because Seattle is a land of awkward conflict where everyone will die on the hill of their way or no way and in order to get something functional Dayton will be one to three blocks east or west every five to ten blocks from Fremont to Shoreline. Thus it's an underbuilt miasma of poor planning under perpetual construction. California? Gives you choice in your suffering, thus a sense of ownership. Seattle? Gives everyone the exact same poor choice, thus a sense of victimization.
Idk about spread we’re pretty locked in due to water, mountains and lack of roads. You would have to build in snohomish or duval on the north end of you didn’t increase density. Mill creek and Lynwood have greatly increased density but their roads are already undersized so high density only really works within a mile or 2 of the highways. Also new buildings are just crazy expensive due to fire, earthquake and handicap codes not to mention labor costs and now material cost increases. I’d be curious how much it cost them to build the lynwood mega cubes per square foot. Those have got to be the cheapest and shittiest new construction buildings around.
On August 25: "Seattle-area home prices rise faster than nearly every other U.S. city, driven in part by younger homebuyers". August 28: "Losing Boeing 787 jet would be major headwind for Washington’s economy". That dichotomy has to resolve.
Well since people are buying payment in most cases lower rates have been a big boost. Most home buyers don’t work for Boeing anyway the average age there is like 50. #1 is the now #2 and situations like it are 6-12 months from now + unemployment insurance and listing time.