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comment by am_Unition
am_Unition  ·  2964 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: HSBC issues Red Alert for the Stock Market

I would have thought predictions of market fluctuations without the use of differential equations or other concrete mathematical definitions would be laughed at, in 2016. Wikipedia:

    Elliott wave analysts (or Elliotticians) hold that each individual wave has its own signature or characteristic, which typically reflects the psychology of the moment.[2][3] Understanding those personalities is key to the application of the Wave Principle; they are defined below. (Definitions assume a bull market in equities; the characteristics apply in reverse in bear markets.)

Cannot believe that the head of HSBC would pay heed to this technique.

    Critics say it is a form of pareidolia.

C'mon, you saw the potato I posted, you really think it was coincidence that thing looked a dude, man?





Deltron_0  ·  2963 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Are they the morons, or are they the investors?

Academics run their theories, they don't run the financial world.

ThurberMingus  ·  2963 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I would have thought predictions of market fluctuations without the use of differential equations or other concrete mathematical definitions would be laughed at, in 2016.

There are certainly plenty who try using real math, but they run into the limitations that always appear with real math and data:

A) Historical data assumes no structural shift (legislation, etc.) outside of the historic range.

B) Most tradable things are highly correlated, which has to be accounted for: two similar stock charts are not two independent datasets. Once the correlation is accounted for, even using all global markets gives a fairly small start for large macro forecasts.

And people usually prefer an exciting, bold, precise prediction with no grounds at all over a careful mathematical prediction with a full explanation of expedited ranges, significance, and assumptions.

am_Unition  ·  2963 days ago  ·  link  ·  

All the best equations involve exactly zero people. Well, my favorites, at least.

kleinbl00  ·  2964 days ago  ·  link  ·  

No, I'm sure it's an indication of a red alert for the stock market.