I think that he could realistically win. If he were able to mobilize the hispanic vote, he could win. His wife is Mexican, and I don't mean she's like... third generation, but she was born in Mexico. Jeb speaks fluent spanish, something I wouldn't discount as an advantage. Something like 15-20% of adults of voting age in the US identify as Latino. Only about 50% of them vote, but that is still a huge number. If he's able to get that demo, add in some independents and the normal GOP base, he could do it.
It's going to be really interesting to see which of the prevailing issues dominates the Hispanic vote. They're a much more diverse voting bloc than black voters and they only slightly favor Democrats. It's an interesting mix. They're no small party like you said.
Exactly right. I don't think you can underestimate the communication factor. I think he has a real shot. People are fickle and with the proper media strategy, the name Bush could take on new meaning. I'm old enough to where he's going to have an uphill battle, but the younger voters may not even recall his brother.