Would you be surprised if he won the nomination? He may not be a good choice, but I think he might be the best choice for a party that cannot realistically win the presidency without winning Florida.
I think that he could realistically win. If he were able to mobilize the hispanic vote, he could win. His wife is Mexican, and I don't mean she's like... third generation, but she was born in Mexico. Jeb speaks fluent spanish, something I wouldn't discount as an advantage. Something like 15-20% of adults of voting age in the US identify as Latino. Only about 50% of them vote, but that is still a huge number. If he's able to get that demo, add in some independents and the normal GOP base, he could do it.
It's going to be really interesting to see which of the prevailing issues dominates the Hispanic vote. They're a much more diverse voting bloc than black voters and they only slightly favor Democrats. It's an interesting mix. They're no small party like you said.
Exactly right. I don't think you can underestimate the communication factor. I think he has a real shot. People are fickle and with the proper media strategy, the name Bush could take on new meaning. I'm old enough to where he's going to have an uphill battle, but the younger voters may not even recall his brother.
I know the polls will change drastically once an actual GOP nomination is chosen because most will just line up behind the new candidate and very few are going to switch to Hillary instead of their chosen candidate, but the polls right now show that he's not going to beat Clinton in Florida even. Except for the Fox News poll. Totally unbiased Fox News. Every other poll shows her up between 3-10 points. If the GOP is holding onto Bush in the hope that he'll take Florida, they're surely not happy with how those polls are shaping up. I will not be surprised if Bush gets the nomination. I will be very surprised if he beats Hillary after he does get it. All she would have to do is remain quiet and likeable for a few months while he gets beaten up. I just don't think she has enough problems that her followers are going to find fault with. She's not likeable, but she doesn't have a lot to defend over. None of her foibles are easily exploitable to the lay person and it's hard to turn the Secretary of State server issue into one that most people would get behind. She's got a lot of money behind her, but I'd love to see Bush pretend he doesn't have the same thing. They're not going to differ on the issues in a way that's going to split one of their voter blocks away from them, so things will remain as they are. The Republicans will lose the election and it's their own fault.