A government of fear. Mitchell Plitnick, on Israel's incoming leadership. Friday, in Souciant.
The key explanation, however, is the continuing self-delusion in Israel that these problems are all disconnected from the Palestinian question, and that resolving that issue would not have a significant impact on these other concerns. That has been a mantra of every Israeli leader since Ehud Barak went on his global “Blame the Palestinians” tour after the failure of the Camp David summit of 2000. And by and large, the Israeli people have bought into it. With the Palestinian Authority and Hamas making little progress toward reunifying, Israelis are given even more reason to doubt the value of concluding a peace deal. This is one aspect that I find difficult to understand. It seems as if Israeli politicians see the US as having infinite patience with the idea of a "peace process". As an American, I don't have any faith that Israel is genuinely interested in a two-state solution. In fact, I often feel that the two-state solution has been an excuse for both Israel and the US to kick the can down the road. However, as the US has uncovered immense stores of natural gas, and as Asia-Pacific is increasingly acquiring more of the US geo-political focus, and as US demographics have shifted, I can see the US public giving up on brokering Israel's situation.So what is behind this broad consensus that wants talks only to get the world off Israel’s back, but shows no interest in actually concluding a peace deal? The factors have been made clear by Netanyahu, and the rest of the Israeli leadership. They are concerned about Iran, they are worried about Hezbollah. They are nervous about the situation in Syria, and they fear that Egypt is turning against them. Even Jordan is experiencing unrest. All of a sudden, there is not only the apocalyptic fear of an Iran nuke that Netanyahu has made sure Israelis feel. The threat of war between Israel and the Arab states that border it is more real than it has been at any time since the Yom Kippur War.
The Mid East is still a tinderbox. If there were to be a large scale general war, I'm sure it would have to start there. Wait until the strife in Syria brings down Lebanon, and then Israel mobilizes, because they don't want that shit on their borders. Scary stuff.
Yes, AFAIK Hezbollah is going to be in a precarious place without Assad. On Talk of the Nation last week, they were talking about Lebanon, and mentioned that Hezbollah now has 10x the missiles it did in 2006. I think it's anybody's guess what will happen in the next couple of years. However, the chance of more conflict seems pretty high.