I've been discussing this with friends the past week. There's a bunch of "if only she would've..." takes but I don't buy any of them. The 'every incumbant has lost this year' is going around a lot, and I think it is part of it, but it also feels like a nice economic scapegoat for libs - a safe haven of logic to avoid facing what I think is the harsher reality, which is that people do want this, whatever their imagined version of the next four years of this is. Over here, after the dust of the election had settled, the consensus of the PVV's victory comes down to people voting for the extreme-right because they want stronger immigration. It's as simple as that. In previous elections the PVV were ostracized because of the whole far-right thing, but this election the neolibs said they wouldn't ostracize the party any longer. Suddenly, a PVV vote wasn't wasted anymore, so anyone who wanted to put their anti-immigration vote to good use flocked to the PVV. I think there's a faint parallel to Trump's victory here - the simple answer could be that people hated the past four years (case in point: Biden approval ratings), and with the GOP now magawashed/normalized you're not gonna have a fight anymore with your family for voting President Chump. --- Personally I am also pondering if I should re-adjust my belief that people vote for what's best for their country, instead of what feels best for themselves. Sigh.(3) They've seen it before, and they still want this.
And when people are scared, and people are tired, and people are worried, they choose simplicity.
Prior to COVID I believed that people will generally do the right thing. After COVID I believe that people will generally do what they see everyone else doing. With liberals that generally means pulling behind a strong leader that has the requisite number of purity points and guttersniping around a weak leader who can't be everything to everyone. With conservatives that generally means following whoever is in charge, regardless of their charge towards the future or off a cliff like lemmings. One of the few bright spots of demagoguery is it isn't transferable. If you want your party to survive the demagogue you need to find another demagogue with more charisma than the last. I have an inkling I'll be spending some time on Berlusconi just to investigate some personal blind spots.Personally I am also pondering if I should re-adjust my belief that people vote for what's best for their country, instead of what feels best for themselves.
From the few Trump voters I've talked to (some of which are pro LGBT "allies") - what they think is best for themselves was absolutely the reason.