a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by b_b
b_b  ·  252 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 8-hour time-restricted eating linked to a 91% higher risk of cardiovascular death

Actually I don’t think that journalist captures the biggest flaw of all, which is the sample size. 20,000 people sounds kind of big, but it’s actually tiny. The problem is that the average age of the population was 49. Heart attacks among people below old age are relatively rare to begin with, and when you are sorting out people who self-report eating on a time-restricted schedule your numbers are going to be minuscule. “91%” is the relative risk, but I don’t see where they report the absolute risk or the absolute numbers. My guess is that a couple instances could be driving that seemingly large figure. Relative risk is meaningless in almost any context (of data reporting) without also understanding absolute risk.





wasoxygen  ·  252 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Larger sample size would merely increase confidence in the misleading association.

• Wearing body armor linked to ER visits for gunshot wounds!

• Nicotine replacement therapy users 70% more likely to get lung cancer!

• Parachute owners die of massive impact trauma 10× as often!

b_b  ·  251 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My supposition is that there isn't a true association, and that a larger sample size would get closer to the true mean. I think this is less a case like you're describing and more a case of distorted findings based on a few outliers driving the average.

wasoxygen  ·  251 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Very possible, and hard to conclude anything based on unreliable self-reported data, apparently not even asking if the person is using a time restricted diet, but just guessing based on two days of reported eating habits.