Polling has really wide margins of error at this early stage. I think people are likelier to say challenger over incumbent the farther from the vote you actually are. And in this case, it's probably more pronounced, because you know Uncle Joe is going to hammer J6 footage on TV ads until our eyes bleed. Mitt Romney had a lead in MI in early polls in 2012 and lost by like 9 points. Trump will fade. He may be more senile than Biden, and that will become more clear the more people have to actually watch him. He can't even keep Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi straight anymore. The Big Mac gunk is degrading his synapses by the day, and I don't think 50% of people are that stupid no matter how little they think of Biden. Call me an optimist. I've been wrong a lot.
The dislike of Biden is (1) high inflation, which is moderating (2) anger at stripped rights, see Spence's outrage over a Republican plan that has been in motion since 1977 (3) anger over Israel. There's plenty to disapprove of and lo and behold, Biden is at a 51% disapproval rating. Trump's at 52, though, so what's your point? The next nine months are going to be about Biden getting re-elected and Trump getting his day in five different courts. Apparently I'm the only one who has ever noticed that approval ratings always suck going into an election year and that "who don't you like" and "who do you want to be president" rarely align.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/americans-dismayed-by-biden-trump-2024-rematch-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-01-25/ The disapproval goes deeper than that in the midwest. It’s also “I’m sick of the dems woke shit” and “he seems dementic”. That’s what friends and family tell me.
But in the end it's still a lesser-of-two-evils type of vote, and Trump is doing exactly nothing to not continue to scare the shit out of everyday voters. His entire campaign is built around stop the steal. It is not an appealing message. I agree with your trepidation about Biden's weakness, but in the end we don't get to compare Biden to our perfect ideal of a candidate on voting day. We compare him to Trump. And to me that's like having the choice between eating hardtack and an actual shit sandwich. Hardtack sucks, but it's nutrition.
To you, but have you always voted for the winning candidate? The hard truth is that people aren't nearly as freaked out about a second Trump term as we (or apparently the dems) expect. Biden looks like a strong wind will knock him over, and sounds worse. Trump will definitely want to debate Biden, and he will utterly destroy him if Biden does. Also, no one I know likes Kamala. No one. Biden has no clothes and the dems are pretending he does: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Lol. I turned 18 just in time to vote for Gore. That was a nice welcome into presidential politics. Been shitty every since. I remember being so angry, disappointed, and disillusioned by the result that I didn't want to get out of bed for like 3 days. But I was 18. Things affect you more at that age. But on the other hand, Bush turned out to be the worst president in American history hands down, and I include Trump in that assessment. So I suppose I was right to be down. I do not think Trump has much of a shot in the rematch, but I also think his chances are non-zero. However, I do not share your pessimism that it will lead to the dissolution of the USA. We survived it once intact. We will again. None of this "he knows how to do it next time" carries water, because he doesn't give a fuck about policy. He cares about being in the news, and he'll never cede power to anyone who upstages him. So nothing will get done in Trump 2.0 either. And I also do not know anyone who like Harris. I almost didn't vote Biden because he picked her. But my Trump hate was stronger than my conviction that I'd never vote for her. And I think that's true of a lot of other people, too.To you, but have you always voted for the winning candidate?
I'ma go out on a limb and guess you don't have a lot of friends outside your bubble. To the contrary, I own a women's health clinic. Our patients talk. I like Kamala. I donated to her attorney general campaign back in the day, and I have friends who campaigned for her. Biden fell over on a bike when he couldn't get his foot out of the pedal clips. Trump barely made it down a ramp from Air Force One. I recognize that this doesn't fit your doomsday narrative? So I'm going to stop trying.
The thing is Trump has a good chance of winning right now. Sure lots of things could change but the guy should have no chance in hell but here we are. If the the goal is to squeak by with a 1-2% margin like it’s a union vote then the democrats got this down, if the goal is some sort of ruling majority capable of governing, well that shit ain’t looking good. 4 more years of disfunction under Trump or Biden is a pretty terrible outcome in my book. Even if Biden wins we still loose just a little less it’s not much you cheer for even if I have to eventually hold my nose and vote for the guy.
I don't think you believe I live in a bubble. Ann Arbor is definitely a bubble, and Biden is very safe here, but I have lots of relations outside of A2. It's a second Trump term. That's not a crazy proposition or a narrative. The Dems thought Hillary was going to win. They think Biden will win again. I think they are wrong.