I keep seeing SBF quotes regarding Bayesian statistics, and I gather that's a broad theme within the effectobro community? Bayes' theorem is simple and elegant, but suffers from a critical flaw for many applications, which is that it relies on a priori knowledge of probabilities of certain events happening. Inevitably, there is no knowledge of the true probability of many future events happening or not, so the "known" probability is replaced by an assumed probability. In the case of whether AGI will come to pass in a few years, I gather that the effectobros just go ahead and insert 100%. Same for whether the "biologic substrate" matters.
This is an excellent insight. What you are hypothesizing, fundamentally, is that Dunning-Kruger bias among the mathematically-inclined will result in an inappropriate reliance on Bayesian statistics. This in turn creates a virtuous cycle of overconfidence and inappropriate analysis. By way of extension, I think the core issue is simpler: The whole of the TESCREAL mindset is "I am a more valuable person than you." That will necessarily result in the deprecation of expertise from the outgroup. This manifests as a practiced philosophy of avoiding/disregarding/deprecating empathy. "Statistics are human beings with the tears wiped away.”Bayes' theorem is simple and elegant, but suffers from a critical flaw for many applications, which is that it relies on a priori knowledge of probabilities of certain events happening.
Do you think this problem could be self-correcting in the long run? Won't these folks like SBF who are making faulty predictions all wind up losing one way or another?Dunning-Kruger bias among the mathematically-inclined will result in an inappropriate reliance on Bayesian statistics
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair I think ridiculous amounts of money has been made on the premise that enough venture capital can bend the laws of the universe to its whim. The following Youtube video is from this post, it's worth watching exactly five minutes because that's all it takes to make you realize that Andy Kaufman would be unemployed if he were still alive because irony is dead: That's where we were until the dumbness started to pop. Theranos, WeWork, FTX, OpenAI... not only are these travesties never showing a profit, they're money sinkholes that make the 20th century look miserly. Comes a time when you make more money by being diligent than you do by being a visionary. I think we're coming round. I don't think it's obvious yet. And I'm not fully convinced I'm right. But enough money has been lost on "boldness" that I think "shrewdness" might be coming back in vogue. Slowly.