So without hyperbole or excess speculation:

1) Thomas Rid (of Active Measures fame) observed in a now-deleted tweet that the Texiera leaks demonstrated a "breathtakingly granular insight" into Russian troop movements as well as command-and-control.

2) Lukashenko brokered a peace deal between Prigozhin and Putin that was every bit as altruistic and guileless as everything Lukashenko has ever done.

3) The US Embassy has been shouting "Errbody out of the pool" since August 18.

So odds are good we knew this was coming, odds are good we estimated that a Russia with Prigozhin in its side is more tactically useful to us than a Russia without a Prigozhin in its side, but odds are equally good that we estimated doing anything about it other than shouting "BY THE WAY WE THINK BELARUS IS ABOUT TO GET REALLY FUCKING DICEY" would be tipping our hand.

I reckon Prigozhin was summoned to Russia for some fuckin' ruse or other, Lukashenko guaranteed his safety and Prigozhin got whacked. Benefits Putin personally, benefits Lukashenko politically, but militarily is equivalent to murdering Erik Prince in 2004.

When you strike at a king, you must kill him.

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

I think the question of whether Prigozhin was cagey or lucky has been answered. The question of what the endgame looks like has not.

The swamps between Belarus and Ukraine are probably going to freeze in a few months. The question will be whether Russia/Belarus launches a counteroffensive once the ground is hard.