This is what worries me about the West’s insistence on spending trillions on Ukraine. The public will for this kind of aid is already falling and has reached the point where at least a third of the country doesn’t support it. And this is for a country with limited strategic value. For Russia, having Ukrain means a buffer again invasion, but as far as it goes Ukraine is mostly farmland outside of Donbas that has mineral wealth. China isn’t supporting Russia because it likes Russia or thinks it can win. They’re using the situation and trying to keep it going so we shoot our entire wad on Ukraine, demoralize our population against the idea of sending trillions in aide to a country to defend itself, and to take the opportunity to get off western oil markets. Once the public turns against Ukraine, I think they make a play for Taiwan. Taiwan is important, almost all of the high end computer chips we use are made there. It’s something we can’t let go of unless we want to be subservient to China in exchange for keeping our computers running. But how can you sell that to a public that’s already tired of seeing so much money sent to Ukraine in the billions every month?
The framing around Ukraine aid is very much being shaped by Russian messaging. Much like Iraq Wars I and II, the stocks are already there, they expire, and they need replenishment so the argument isn't "let's give Ukraine a new car" the argument is "let's give Ukraine our old car and buy us a new car." As far as "limited strategic value" Ukraine and Belarus have been the plains to thunder across in search of plunder since the Parthians. The Russians want it because it's a buffer state between Moscow and Frankfurt; Europe wants it because it's a buffer state between Moscow and Frankfurt. Arguing Ukraine isn't strategic is like arguing the Rhein valley isn't strategic. And China isn't supporting Russia. China is not embargoing Russia but the bulk of Chinese commerce with Russia is commercial (see: embargoes) because so many Western companies have pulled out of Russia. Russia's biggest military partners at this point are Iran and North Korea, heavily-embargoed pariah states themselves. I think there's a lot of fuzzy-headed thinking around "because Ukraine, therefore Taiwan" because it furthers the useful paranoia of pundits. This graph may be useful to your interests - American/Chinese trade has absolutely plummeted since the pandemic.