a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by am_Unition
am_Unition  ·  959 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Look for a nice aurora on Thursday (April 14)

So obviously we have instruments like LASCO (just save yourself some time and go to solarham.com for aggregated data), which can see a CME lift off of the sun in near real-time, but we also have spacecraft orbiting L1, between the Earth and sun, about 30 minutes upstream, measuring the plasma there. One particular component of the interplanetary magnetic field in the upstream solar wind matters far more than the others; The amount of flux along the orientation of Earth's dipole axis. If the IMF is very strong, oriented southwards, and embedded in a very fast and dense solar wind, like that of a CME, that's worst case scenario.

"Improvement in forecasting Earth impacts" is like saying "OK so what if we knew the orientation of the magnetic field when it got blasted off from the sun and headed our direction?", or even "OK so what if we knew that a sunspot was going to produce a massive flare and Earthward-directed CME in a few days?". You score a few more days of warning, maximum. So what? The money should be taken from my research field and put towards fortifying our power grids and satellite systems. Sadly, I think that's gonna cost a hella lot more than what we're getting for research funding.