I had omicron in January. Bad cold symptoms for about a week, maybe less, but I was congested, especially at night, for several weeks. Annoying, but there are worse things. Interestingly, if you look at NYT's covid map, Washtenaw is the only county in Michigan experiencing a spike in cases right now: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/michigan-covid-cases.html I'm 80-90% certain it's because it's the only place where regular testing is still occuring. Basically everywhere else has dropped their covid protocols. As trump once said, "No testing, no covid."
Speaking as the owner of a healthcare facility - in the UK, mortality of Omicron BA.1is now lower than seasonal flu - In Japan, mortality of Omicron BA.1 is slightly higher than seasonal flu, but "Every hospital in Japan is required to notify the government of each case of novel coronavirus infection, including asymptomatic ones, whereas only around 5,000 hospitals are asked to do so with regard to the number of seasonal influenza patients." - That's overall, though - among unvaccinated people in the United States, the mortality rate is between 6 and 100x higher. - I know two (vaccinated and boosted) people who spent days in the hospital with Omicron. - Omicron continues to cause all sorts of nasty side effects during pregnancy. I don't wear a mask anymore except where it's required (healthcare facilities, public transportation). At the same time, we enforce our mask policy at the clinic because it's a healthcare facility, dumbass. I have also noticed that the 'essential workers' of the world around here have been a lot more reluctant to take off their masks, with (I believe) good reason. If I were swimming in the public's germs all day long I, too, would mask the hell up. As it is I'm among retail for like an hour or two a week. All that said, the root pathogen remains COrona VIrus Disease, Variant 2019. Influenza varies in its nastiness every year, too, and there are three or four dominant strains per season.
And therein lies the folly of the China 0 Covid strategy. We can probably expect the same seasonal variation with covid over time basically in perpetuity at this point. It will be annoying but manageable, as flu season is. Are they planning on locking down Shanghai for like 30 years? Just until Xi dies? What's the endgame? I can't access your FT link, but my basic point about confounders was there are so many things that go into the ultimate death rate, that at this point, it's probably impossible to account for all of them precisely. In the end it doesn't matter, because a low death rate is a low death rate, and hopefully on balance it will continue to wane. I also don't wear a mask unless it's mandatory at this point, and I can honestly say that the BA.2 variant is the first one that doesn't make me at all nervous. I think we've officially entered the endemic state and we'll just have to deal from now on.All that said, the root pathogen remains COrona VIrus Disease, Variant 2019. Influenza varies in its nastiness every year, too, and there are three or four dominant strains per season.
I finished rewatching Chernobyl last night. I figured it would be poignant in light of certain genocidal campaigns in and around the Near Abroad and I was correct. It is fundamentally a study in the tragedy of cronyism, in which a fundamentally unfair system rewards those who work the system best, not those who are best for the system. The most natural approach to disaster within a command economy is "do whatever you can RIGHT NOW to solve the problem RIGHT NOW." The whole of the structure is reactive. COVID zero gave China a PR win after a PR disaster; no apparatchik in their right mind is going to alter the flight plan. So what's going to happen is a lot of old people are going to die, which from a demographic standpoint is exactly what China needs to be competitive long-term. Not the sort of calculus you get to do in a free society but when you've normalized concentration camps? Yearly Fluvid shots at the local CVS makes a lot of sense in a capitalist economy. When you've got totalitarianism and Sinovac? You do whatever doesn't get you sent to a work camp.
I try not to blame the foot soldiers for how they act. Would I have the guts to tell Putin or Xi that their new clothes aren't what everyone says they are? We all like to think we'd be the hero, but let's face it: By definition the overwhelming majority of us are not. On a related topic, seems more and more like Putin's strategy from the beginning has been "get the gas; get the oil; get the coal; get the warn water ports," and his tactic was going to be to replace the Kyiv government to get what he wanted. But not he's decided that a better tactic is just to level everything he needs to level to force Ukraine to sue for peace. Biden's claim of a strategic loss for the Russians just looks wrong. A tactical loss for sure, because even Putin would rather accomplish his theft with killing as few people as possible. Who wouldn't? But his strategy seems very much intact. It's up to our government and our allies to make sure the strategic loss takes place, which can only happen when Russia tries to sell its ill-gotten gains. To give that groups of officers the space they need to show Vlad he's got no clothes is going to take a hell of a lot of encouragement from the West. Otherwise, he'll come away vindicated and even stronger than before.
45? Isn't that dead? I had one rough night of aches and fever. Now just mostly weak. A mild and very intermittent cough. I just took an antigen test this morning and the positive band was stronger than the control. Isolated, and hoping my wife and daughter dodge it.