It's clear to me that Trump's already-public actions surrounding the 2020 election and transition of power meet (or exceed) legal definitions of "sedition". We can certainly expect more evidence to come to light, including witness testimonies.
I think the Jan. 6th House investigation committee will churn up enough noise to force Garland's DoJ to prosecute. I understand the concerns about "protecting the office of the presidency", but this is about, y'know, protecting our entire system of democracy.
When DoJ announces charges, that's when Trump will declare his intent to run for president in 2024, and, of course, leverage any prosecutions against him to fundraise. He'll also allege that you can't charge the most prominent front runner of one political party with a crime, that it's all a political witch hunt, he's done nothing wrong, etc., we've heard it all before.
Whether or not he's convicted, imprisoned, flees the country, whatever, he'll see what he can incite in 2022 and especially 2024. It may feel like the threat is over, and it's verrrrrrry tempting to avoid paying any more attention to Trump, but until the day he dies, he'll actively undermine any semblance of principles, progress, and justice.
wasoxygen, the double or nothing bet still stands. I believe I bet on Trump being in prison by July 4, 2022. What happens if he's indicted but out on bail? This could get interesting. We should hash out the details before too many more months.
The language was "Trump will be in prison by July 4th, 2022." There are a lot of steps between indictment and sentencing. Metaculus now predicts 9% that "Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028."
Yeah, if Trump taught me one thing, it's that any and all Trump-as-defendant lawsuits will be dragged out as long as possible. Jennifer Rubin got it right today, and I should have explicitly said in my post that this DoJ memo greatly helps any prosecutors trying to establish Trump's intent. Evidence like this makes it much more difficult to claim that Trump actually believes that the election was stolen, which would/will certainly be the crux of Trump's legal defense arguments. Even with all its glaring imperfections, I still believe we require a legal system. The courts have been the most credible way that Trump's false election-related claims have been rebuked thus far.