I think a lot of it rides on how clear the margin is on Nov 3. Florida should have final results on Nov 3. If Biden carries Florida, then it will be clear that Trump has lost. In fact, Biden could very well have more than 270 that night. Of course, Trump will cry foul and say that there was massive fraud, but he doesn't have a lot of options at that point, and everyone except most of his base knows he is full of shit. The talk will just be centered around his concession. If Biden pulls off something crazy and wins Texas, then Trump is being compared to Jimmy Carter and he is toast. If Trump wins Florida, then I suspect chaos. He will then do everything in his power to call the election at the current counts and stop further counting. It won't be easy for him to do, however, the media probably won't maintain discipline and will follow Trump into a crazy place. Of course, Nov 3 is still a very long way away. Biden should be in Texas. Young people are voting in droves in Texas. Edit: Apparently Bloomberg started spending money in Texas yesterday.
I read a funny thing yesterday that basically said that Election 2020 might end up being Y2K: a non-event remembered as a punchline because hundreds of thousands of people successfully labored in obscurity to make it a non-event. I am concerned, I am nervous and I am not letting myself be hopeful but all of my concerns are hypothetical "what ifs" much like they were in 1999. On the contrary, most concrete facts I'm exposed to are good news, not bad. Had a dentist appointment this morning. My hygenist wanted to know if I wanted to schedule my next cleaning six months out, on the assumption we'd still have a country. I told her it doesn't hurt to plan. Then my dentist asked if I wanted to talk about braces and I said "after we're through 'this'" (waves hands) "and on the other side." "So, 2025 then." "Whatever it takes, man." If the majority of the country were racist white people with no respect for germ theory I'd be a lot more concerned. As it is, the racist white people are a numerical minority which means any shift won't be permanent. And the less they believe in germ theory the less permanent it will be.
Are you getting a lot of text message canvassing in Michigan? I'm getting a lot and have been for weeks in Wisconsin. 2020 isn't 2016 and mobile phones are even more ubiquitous, but I don't remember even a tenth of this in 2016. Florida and Texas would be crushing to Trump, but states like Michigan and Wisconsin would really make a Biden win clear even without Texas.
No matter what the result - win or loss - Trump's only plan is to claim election fraud on an unprecedented scale. Because he is a Very Stable Genius, and has created the Best Economy Ever Known on the Planet, anything other than a landslide for him is a clear demonstration of fraud. November 5th, shit in this country is going to go sideways like it never has before. And then he still holds the reins for another 2 months. And then has to show up at his "defeat party" and shake Biden's hand, and pass the crown to Biden. And that ain't NEVER gonna happen. Ever. In any way, shape, or form. This country is in for Trouble. And Biden doesn't have the chops to stitch things back together. It'll be four years of total clusterfuckery - if he lives that long - and our country will be even more fucked in 2025. This is the future of America. There isn't any way to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
I don't think that will be the case. I do think there could be real turmoil, but I actually think that the US has moved passed peak insanity, and is swinging back towards the middle. I think that Trump and the GOP are out of step with a country that has moved on. Trump is loud, but he isn't very capable, and he is in opposition to a massive system that is not well-aligned with his interests, or sympathetic to them. Currently, Trump is POTUS and he might be POTUS for 4 more years, and there is a massive amount of deference given to that. However, once Trump has lost the election, he loses his right to much of that deference. Biden is not only capable, but is respected and as President-Elect, can draw on very deep resources to ensure a transition whether Trump is physically there or not (and I expect that he won't show). The crown is taken from Trump. He can't give it away. I actually think we'll have four years that are less-divisive, and that other issues will come to the fore. I expect the GOP will spend the next four years trying to figure out who they are as their political prospects continue to recede.
I am ALL IN on your view of the future. Where do I send my money? :-) It is truly what I hope for, but... ... Trump is Osama Bin Laden. He has put forth a belief/philosophy, and empowered anyone to claim fealty to that belief, and act in his name without his permission. The white supremacists, Michigan Militias, and Proud Boys are Al Qaida cells. They operate autonomously, funded by the same dark money sources, and sometimes coordinate their efforts through whisper networks. The loss of Trump/Bin Laden doesn't disempower the people who still believe in their White Supremacy mission... it emboldens them. They now need to redeem their god, and show he (and they) were right all along, and push to establish their Caliphate on a new piece of land. (How much you wanna bet they don't set up their training and indoctrination camps on the coasts, but instead go to the wilds of middle America?) If you've been rolling coal on your neighbors and flying the Trump flag from the back of your BroDozer for the last 4 years, you don't quietly go away. You go bigger. And that's gonna be a real mess.
Just don't put it in the stock market. :) I think you give these groups far too much credit as combatants. Al-Qaeda fought a difficult war against the Soviet Union and Afghanistan before Bin Laden turned them against the West, and they were backed and armed by foreign governments (the US playing a prominent role). Those supremistst and militias are somewhat disenfranchised domestic working class folk. They have mortgages, truck payments, and enjoy deer season. Also, Biden doesn't scare them as much as Trump wishes he would. That's why Biden scared Trump so much.
Oh, I don't think Y'all Qaida will be effective fighters, but their skill is always choosing to pick on the weak and disenfranchised anyway. They don't stay around and fight, because they always lose when it comes to bare knuckles. I do think they will roam the streets, menace people, and demonstrate the "utter lawlessness in America that Joe Biden is letting happen to good, working class people", and make Joe The Plumber wish for an authoritarian to "Take Control Again like Trump did!"