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comment by b_b
b_b  ·  1505 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Differential Partisan Non-Response

Another consideration on why polls may be biased toward Biden: the number of new registered Republicans is much larger than Democrats. Apparently, may not be adjusted for in the modeling, since past voting habits are considered the strongest predictor of future ones, and new registrants have no past voting habits to account for.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage





goobster  ·  1504 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That's a really interesting angle I hadn't heard before!

And unsettling...