All these articles are looking at the same data:
New U.S. Home Sales Surge in May With Buyers Returning to Market
U.S. home sales hit nine-and-a-half-year low; price growth cools
New home sales surged in May as buyers scrambled to find properties for purchase
Home sales plunged again in May
Fox will tell you whatever you want to hear:
New home sales rise surprisingly strong 16.6% in May
Existing home sales plunge 9.7% in 3rd straight monthly drop
Note that the Census Bureau lists 676,000 new homes sold in May.
- The Census Bureau collects new home sales based upon the following definition: "A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit." The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed.
I can't tell, but I believe if you sell a vacant piece of land with a building permit for it, it's a "new home sale."
The Census Bureau doesn't track existing home sales. That's left up to the National Association of Realtors - a self-report at best from the industry that wants you to know prices only ever go up, and there is never a bad time to buy a house. What do their numbers look like?
Mortgage delinquencies are at a nine year high.
one in three renters failed to pay in full in June.
There is a moratorium on all FNMA-owned mortgage foreclosures until September.
If you can look at this market and go "yay record home sales" there's some Hertz stock I'd like to sell you.
(H/T insomniasexx)
There’s two options, right? 1. The bottom falls out which I’m assuming means lots of foreclosures, evictions, and upheaval of people and housing security. 2. Some sort of federal bailout or extension of renter and homeowner protection. I have no idea what that could look like.
We're in that place where Steve Mnuchin is cutting Treasury checks to Blackrock. Have been lo these many months. I've been using my GMA to prune my reading list. If I listen to what you say because I think you know something about money? And suddenly you start talking about flying fucking cars because you don't know what's going on with money? I no longer care what you have to say about money.
Me neither but it sure as fuck better not look like a giant bank bailout without any restrictions on foreclosures like the last time. I think given the tensions we're living under already, that that would be a tipping point.I have no idea what that could look like.
And yet the strangest thing is that around me anyway, any house that's decently updated and not priced to gouge is moving fast. My sister is trying to buy a place right now, and she has had no luck, even bidding over list on a house on day 1. The data are the data, but my experience just doesn't square. I'm very confused about what's happening. Also haven't seen the door buster car deals I've been waiting for. GM took 20% of my wife's pay (as a forced loan...supposedly), and they don't seem too eager to move product like they were in '09. Schizophrenic economy right now.
That's rich people riching. I watched that shit in March. Usually I'd see a house or two over a million get listed. In March I was seeing three or four a day. Most amazingly, they sold - houses that were typically on the market for a year, two years would go in a week. I can only apply my own experience, but I have friends with businesses who managed to pull a grand, two grand worth of EIDL, maybe four grand worth of PPP. Meanwhile I've got a business with six employees and I pulled in seventy thousand dollars. I have friends without businesses who are working from home, all the time, every time who never have before while even I'm discovering that it's tricky accomplishing much even when the world's chillest 7-year-old has to get to virtual school every 45 minutes. So you've got a big house and you're old and you see the writing on the wall and you're gonna get OUT of that bitch and move somewhere away from people so you list it at maybe 70% what it would have been a year ago. Meanwhile you've got a small house and you're young and you've been tripping over your children for four.fucking.MONTHS and sweet baby jesus anyone can justify a home office now. Not only that, but seeing this has revealed just how fragile your folx are and what a total fucking deathtrap nursing homes are so you know what? Mom's moving in with us and now we don't need 2000sqft for Jim, Jane, Jimmy and Janey we now need 3500sqft for James, Janet, Jim, Jimmy, Jany, Jane and Consuela our new live-in au pair because who the fuck can accomplish anything with these kids around all the time So the Jumbo Loan stuff is moving. Prices aren't even bad because everyone's coffers are flush. If you aren't an abject moron you go "this is a great time to tap my 401(k) 'cuz stonks are stupid high" and now you have equity. But the bottom end is being artificially propped up by the shrewd calculation that if we evicted every third person (which is what we'd do normally if every third person missed multiple mortgage and rental payments) we would descend into anarchy. But let's not pretend that this is (a) normal (b) sustainable (c) steadystate.