I could give you a well-reasoned answer to each of these questions point-by-point, with references. If you want me to I will.

But my take on all of this is related to seeing an actual "JAPAN ATTACKS PEARL HARBOR" newspaper in the flesh as opposed to seeing two seconds of it in some ancient newsreel. 'cuz I got to read the actual article, and they were talking about how "dozens died" in the scurrilous attack by Japan. "Several" ships were "damaged" in the attack. Here we were, drumming up support for war, and the actual numbers were orders of magnitude greater than what was reported in the press.

Actual numbers came out the next day, I guess. We'd declared war by then. But in the moment, the sheer magnitude of what had happened was yet to be discovered. And that was a localized thing, top-down coordinated by the navy, with a hierarchical structure to interrogate.

I mean, look. There are no COVID-19 statistics on me. I spent a couple hours trying to get tested and gave up. There are no COVID-19 statistics on my mother-in-law. She spent three hours trying to get tested and gave up. There are no COVID-19 statistics on my daughter or my wife. There are no COVID-19 statistics on our other midwife, who despite being a healthcare worker who has an immediate relative whom she spent an evening with legit testing positive for COVID-19, has been turned down for testing. I know two people who have even been tested for COVID-19: the aforementioned midwife's father-in-law, who went to the hospital with respiratory distress, and one of my wife's patients, who has called 911 three times in 24 hours and been in an ambulance twice (for a combination of kidney infection and panic attacks). And remember: WE HAVE TESTS. We could run 'em if we wanted to. We don't. Nobody wants to run them because the protocol basically involves wearing a bunny suit and masks we don't have and treating the sample like it's made out of radioactive ebola.

So nobody tests.

Know what EMS is doing around here? If you call them for a heart attack, they'll show up, cardiovert you, get you stable and then wait. They'll watch to see if they have to cardiovert you again. If you're stable? They'll take you to the hospital. If you flip again? Yeah, they'll do what they can with you in your house but you're not going to the hospital, bubba. Because the resources aren't there anymore. They're not going to throw you into an overcrowded ward where you're someone else's problem. If you can't be made right by EMS, you are meeting your mutherfucking maker.

Are you dying of COVID? Sure, probably. Are they going to test for it? Don't make me laugh. Is your condition going to be listed as cardiac arrest on your toe tag? Definitely. Did you die of COVID even if you weren't infected? I mean, last year they would have taken you to the hospital hell or high water.

watch this.

We want statistics because they give us control. We want the numbers because they put a name to the nameless dread. But there are people dying, and there are a lot of them, and we don't know the true numbers and we probably never will. So really, what your chart is doing is giving a glimpse into the numbers everyone is obsessing over without really having a clue what to tie them into.

My mother was a professional epidemiologist for a while. She legit shut down an outbreak of Legionaire's Disease. I had to explain R0 to her. The way we're talking about this thing, the way we're trying to wrap our heads around it has not nearly enough basis in logic for us to be giving it so much faith.

Maybe a month ago, back when Seattle was just setting up drive-through testing (LOLllllerskates on that one), I opined that you'll know someone who knows someone who died of COVID-19. Nothing I've seen has changed my mind on that. You'll also know businesses that aren't around anymore - I'm already there. You'll know people whose careers changed.

But we won't really know what the mortality rates were even looking back. We'll be able to guess, the same way we found the opioid epidemic four years after the fact, by combing through every goddamn death in the United States and reclassifying them.

GOOD THING THE STOCK MARKET IS UP OR ELSE WE'D HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOMETHING