I'm your huckleberry.

Here's the way to look at it: COVID-19 is "the flu" if "the flu" were more contagious, could not be inoculated against and killed more old people. We've had the flu vaccine since 1938. Yeah, the flu shot has been optional but it's been around. You can get it at CVS. It probably costs $25 with no insurance, between $10 and $0 with.

"More contagious" "could not be inoculated against" and "killed more old people" are three statements that go right over your head. "more contagious" means "you're more likely to get it" but you've survived flu every goddamn time so what's the big deal. "could not be inoculated against" means "you're more likely to get it" but again, you've survived the flu every goddamn time. "Killed more old people" you immediately go to "but old people die" and then right on to "old people die of the flu" without pausing to consider public health considerations.

It's the public health considerations that you need to focus on.

So we deliver babies. Every hospital we talk to has a protocol for dealing with coronavirus. They all include things like "you get two companions period, no in and out privileges" which means whereas it used to be you, your wife, your doula, your mom, six cousins and your wife's best friend at the hospital, it's now you, your wife and your doula period. Okay, we can do that.

A couple of them include phrasing like "maternity patients showing symptoms of coronavirus will be isolated in a negative pressure room." Okay, makes sense.

But how many negative pressure rooms does your hospital have? And are they anywhere near the maternity ward?

In total, 31 firefighters and 3 police officers would ultimately be quarantined or isolated. As of this writing, 18 are showing symptoms.

Kirkland is down 31 firefighters from one outbreak. Best guess? That's maybe two out of five fire stations. One uncontained outbreak has taken out 40% of Kirkland's emergency response capacity.

And that's with everyone around here freaking balls, by the way. We're cancelling schools, avoiding work. Highways be empty, dawg. Let's say that we're containing it appropriately and knocking that R0 of 2.4(?) down to an R0 of 1.4(?). Our 31 firefighters are going to be 45 people in about another 3 days. Next week it's gonna be 60. Assuming everyone is self-isolating and washing their hands.

Suppose one of those firefighters has a friend who works at Domino's and they shook hands.

“Hey, you guys are supposed to be in self-quarantine,” the firefighter said.

“No, we’re not,” the nurse replied.

“Well, our chain of command talked to your management, and they say something different.”

The nurse insisted; she hadn’t heard anything, she said.

The firefighter looked down the hall and saw two caregivers in scrubs -- no mask or gown.

“What the hell?” the firefighter thought. “Who is not telling you that you have two suspected coronavirus cases?”

So okay. You're young and spry and you've fought the flu. I'm young and spry and I've fought the flu. I'm either fighting the flu or coronavirus and I hope to fuck it's coronavirus because then at least I'll have it out of the way. But I've been able to sum up the energy for light soldering and occasional shopping for about ten days now. I haven't been hit this bad by flu in maybe six years - back when I didn't do flu shots 'cuz I was lazy. My contribution to the economy since late February has been netflix and chill.

But between you, your wife and your wife's best friend? Statistically, one of you is losing a parent to this. And you're losing them to pneumonia, and you're losing them to respiratory collapse, and if your parents are lucky, they're going to the hospital but if they're not, the American Hospital Association is estimating about 1.9 million people are going to the ICU over this

And there are about 60,000 ventilators in the United States.

No, they ain't all going at once. But this is an exponential situation.

Fundamentally? More people are going to get sick, and they're going to get more sick than usual, and our healthcare system does not have the capacity for it. Which means we're going to be experiencing a more severe flu season with less medical care. And that is generally bad for the vulnerable.

Does that make sense?

Since you didn't ask, but since it matters:

TESTING

So let's say you think you have CV19. You'd like to be sure and, after all, Alex Azar says there's a million test kits out there.. You happen to live in a hotspot, there's an easy thousand cases out there

And your alma mater, UW, is at the absolute forefront of testing. Hell, your wife transports to UW all the time! You know some nurses over there! And the WA state testing lab is literally a mile from your yoga studio. Let's do our part, right?

So the first thing you'll discover is that the COVID19 hotline is pretty much busy all day. The next thing you'll discover is that they're only testing known exposures to COVID19, or ER patients in respiratory collapse. Theoretically you can get a referral for COVID19 testing from a doctor, but speaking as a doctor's office, we don't know where to refer to or how to refer and we spent eight hours on the phone figuring this shit out Thursday.

If you dig into it you'll discover that the Shoreline clinic can do about 100 tests a day, and that patients are being tested twice for redundancy so that's 50 patients. UW can do 1000 which is another 500 patients. Presume you find somewhere to send your patient (yourself): you're at the end of the line no matter what and that line is currently filled with (A) respiratory collapse ER patients (B) known exposures (C) patients who have been in China in the past 14 days (still!). Not only that you're entirely at the local level because the CDC has decided that coronavirus is now endemic to the Seattle area so they are actively not testing anyone local for CV19.

We have Quest and LabCorps accounts. Theoretically LabCorps has a COVID19 test. It is available under the CDC guidelines which are

Clinicians should use their judgment to determine if a patient has signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19 and whether the patient should be tested. Decisions on which patients receive testing should be based on the local epidemiology of COVID-19, as well as the clinical course of illness. Most patients with confirmed COVID-19 have developed fever1 and/or symptoms of acute respiratory illness (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing). Clinicians are strongly encouraged to test for other causes of respiratory illness, including infections such as influenza.

Epidemiologic factors that may help guide decisions on whether to test include: any persons, including healthcare workers2, who have had close contact3 with a laboratory-confirmed4 COVID-19 patient within 14 days of symptom onset, or a history of travel from affected geographic areas5 (see below) within 14 days of symptom onset.

So. If you have had confirmed contact with a confirmed case of COVID-19, or if you've been in Iran, Italy, China, South Korea or Japan in the past 14 days, you can order up a Lab Corps test.

Quest has a test, too. It's available to practitioners, starting tomorrow, who "use their discretion" and has a five-day turnaround. They would much rather you take their "everything but coronavirus" panel which tests against 19 flu-like viruses that aren't SARS-COV-2. I have my suspicions about this; the WA State Insurance Commissioner has ordered all insurers in WA state to waive testing fees for CV19 but if I know my insurance companies, they'll go "that's not a CV19 test, that's an 'everything but CV19' test and THAT we'll pass the entire $3500 cost on to you, fucker."

So. 71 confirmed cases in King County. 27 confirmed cases in Snohomish County. I've had symptoms for two weeks. And starting tomorrow, I can pay to have my wife swab my cheek and send it to St. Louis to find out if I still have CV19 friday but only because I'm married to a medical professional. Anybody else? They better know one of those 98 cases by name because the CDC figures Coronavirus is like ivy, it just lives here now no need to test for it we know it's here.

https://quillette.com/2020/03/06/dont-test-dont-tell-the-bureaucratic-bungling-of-covid-19-tests/

I’m a scientist (nope, it’s still weird to say), and kleinbl00 is basically spot on. mk is also very worried, I think, and he has like at least maybe one credential over his career, I’ve heard. His CV is at least two lines, I mean.

Here’s my take on covid-19 things:

Questions welcome. But yeah I’ve lurked here 4eva, so it’s only moderately weird that I can tell you that you and your fam will be OK, man. Your state has some of the more favorable policies and location. I have some family there who work in public health, coincidentally.