- We know that Wuhan went from an index case in Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of 9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was Jan 15 and we're now 7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around 1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating 600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic. China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.
So in other words, if we had a functioning national government Seattle would be in lockdown right now.
I spent a few hours being terrified now I'm over it. I'm going to get sick. My compromised immune system in combination with the amount of time I spend in the hospital and hospital-adjacent properties means it's basically a guarantee. I'll survive or I won't. These dice get rolled every flu season.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Costco/comments/fcj0p0/coronavirus_megathread/ My buddy works at a Costco. They're sold out of water, milk, bread, toilet paper, paper towels, hand sanitizer, bleach, batteries, and a whole mess of other stuff. Somewhere is a doomsday prepper chilling out in his cabin enjoying a rice and jambalaya MRE chuckling at his foresight. My question is, are people even thinking? Milk and bread spoil, so why hoard those? Bottled water? The municipalities are gonna shut off the pipes or something over this? Hand sanitizer? Doesn't that only work for bacteria? My real, real question is, is this all an over reaction? Me? I'm a bit nervous at the thought, but I'm not like rushing to the stores in a panic.
ahosai pointed out that the whole world is overreacting to coronavirus because China overreacted to coronavirus. Me? I'm in that weird place where I'd rather "be getting over coronavirus" than "getting over the same nasty flu for like the third time just in time to come down with coronavirus." I mean, I could bike to every confirmed case so far. In all directions. I'm like at the epicenter. My community college shut down today (and tomorrow, and maybe Wednesday) because they've got a nursing program and like 40 staff and students have been in and out of that nursing home in Kirkland on the daily. The Costco Crew seem to be preparing for armageddon, not quarantine. I'll say this: I won't make any lentil soup this week because my local is out of lentils. Black beans? They got. Pinto beans? They don't. Also leeks. I have a hard time picturing anyone panic-buying leeks. I'm more likely to believe that Kroger cut their leek shipment to make room for russet potatoes. Meanwhile they had cans and cans and cans and cans and cans of refried beans for a dollar. My daughter loves refried beans. One of those cans will feed her for like a day. If I were feeling panicky I woulda bought, like, thirty dollars worth. As it is I bought three cans.
Hey, I'll have you know I was very calm when I bought two weeks worth of canned veggies. It wasn't a panic buy, just a sudden large purchase of copious amounts of non-perishables. But when I handed my card to the gal at the local Super Saver? Calm as a cucumber, broh
I’m pretty sure the point of stocking up is so that you have enough food in case you get sick so you don’t have to bring your nast ass germs to the store. Like I routinely have enough food to last me weeks because I can’t always get to the store but I also made sure I have NyQuil and Kleenex. So basically just act real smug if anybody questions it. Just trying to be considerate and not spread germs.
You might want to stock up on essentials it’s pretty bare out there but not crazy empty all the basics are still available but the shelves are 20-30% full. My local qfc had a few bottles of soap, plenty of paper towels, low on tp, low on meat, low on frozen meals but plenty of vegetables and rice. It looks a little worse then it does after the 4th of July.
You can freeze milk, just gotta shake it when it thaws. Bread too, just have to toast it to make it better. I dunno, we’re still at under 30 confirmed cases in Canada and y’all just shot up to a possible 600 like nothing. I’m only worried that I work in tourism so option 1) is everybody brings their nasty germs and option 2) is nobody brings anything and I’m poor.
Don’t worry, Mike Pence is on the job! Didn’t Jay Inslee declare a state of emergency? I need to get caught up, been in central Oregon all weekend.