let's just say I'm still hodling and yodling and.... hoping and wishing... and giving up. timing is E V E R Y T H I N G But thank you for the crazy good retrospective on what woulda/coulda been. -sigh-
I guess so. I didn't know if this was a double-down. TBH 2 years is a short horizon for crypto. The ICO mania was definitely not part of my thesis. I'm out of the stock market and in cash, but hodling my ETH. The market can probably keep pumping as long as central banks want it to, but some things don't seem right at all.
Don’t worry, it will rebound. Or so I am told each week for the past year :) “There is so much work being done,” yet the work and the new partnerships etc, never yield to an increase in price. There seems to be zero correlation between adoption/functionality and price. To be clear, I am holding too but I think it’s a very long hodl. Not gonna happen any time soon. Wish I had sold at $1k. I had debated doing so. Aw shucks. Guess I’ll have to earn my riches.
What’s your guess as to when it hits $1k again?
Right now, the people in crypto are hodlers and developers. Go do a Google Trends search on Bitcoin or Ethereum; internet searches for the term "bitcoin" are at their lowest since May 2017 (when BTC was at $1400). And while this is definitely interfering with my yacht purchase schedule, it is fundamentally a good thing as it's allowed the serious to be serious about it without the constant hammering from ICO monkeys and Robin Hooders.
Oh man, give me the ICO monkeys again so long as they come with a huge spike in price. I am not in this for any sense of purpose, I’m in it to make money. Aside from that, I could not care less about which tech wins the day etc. I want financial security for my family. I’m no longer chasing easy money. I’m working hard to make it happen myself. I missed an opportunity at $1400. I’m not so sure it will happen again. I’ll hodl, but I’m not holding my breath.
LOL I feel you man. The sensible question is what's your upside and downside risk? Your downside risk is however much you've already piled into crypto. It's very easy to take that top number you didn't sell at, subtract your holdings now and call that your "loss." That's not accurate, though. Your loss is your money in minus your money out. By the former, I'm down seven figures. By the latter I'm up a Porsche, some biotech investment and several thousand dollars into a friend's kidneys. I was up four orders of magnitude. I'm now up three. This is due to no strategy or brilliance of my own yet when I look at it that way, I'm Warren Fucking Buffett. When I look at it the other way I'm holding a sock puppet with a microphone. Your upside risk in crypto is utterly fucking unknowable. The design price of the satoshi was a penny. There are 100,000,000 satoshis in a bitcoin. Ergo, the design price of BTC was $1m per BTC. The maximum number of bitcoins minable is 21,000,000; the bitcoin ecosystem was intended to be worth $21 trillion dollars. Note that this is nowhere near the presumed size of the world economy, which is generally taken to be between 60 trillion and 70 trillion dollars. It is, however, pretty close to US Treasury and other estimates of the approximate size of the world's black market, which gives certain credence to theories as to who Satoshi Nakamoto really is. And that's just presuming that there's a 100% successful case of adoption of bitcoin by the black market. Suppose 10% of the black market adopts bitcoin? Now your intrinsic value is $100k. Suppose only 1% of the black market adopts bitcoin? Well, we're there then. Right now, though, it looks like 0.1% of black market transactions are BTC and that number is a long, long way from certain. Meanwhile 90% of BTC transactions are traders. Intrinsic value of ETH? Take the uncertainty of BTC and multiply it by the fact that ETH actually has use cases beyond "chinese Tongs paying each other for human trafficking." https://ourworldindata.org/exports/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia_v2_850x600.svg So. Downside risk is "whatever you've already invested minus what you've already pulled out." Upside risk is "more data needed." And that's why the market is full of hodlers and developers.
I’m already waaaaay ahead. Put a 20% down payment on a house with ETH money and still have a lot out. No complaints. Im 25x what I put in. Still have a good amount in though. If it got to $1000 again it would change my life significantly. Either way, I’m a silly lucky person. No complaints.