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comment by dublinben
dublinben  ·  2669 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Does anyone know anything about personal finance stuff?

All this being said, a mutual fund based on an index like the S&P 500 is more diversified, and therefore less risky than any single equity. If you are afraid of "gambling" in the stock market, just park your money in a low cost passive index fund, and let it grow.





kleinbl00  ·  2669 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes and no.

A NASDAQ ETF right now is mostly exposed to Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft and Google. All of those stocks have insane P/E ratios. They're actually more prone to shock than something boring like 3M.

But

A diversified index fund covering lots of boring stocks is largely bombproof.

A 3X inverse ETF is based on an index and is about as stable as plutonium.

Either way, an ETF based on a long portfolio of dividend - paying stocks will pay a dividend. In many cases, particularly where the market is at, the dividend performance outstrips the appreciation performance.

rthomas6  ·  2665 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What do you think about a Russell 3000 ETF? That and small-cap value ETFs are where I have most of the stock portion of retirement.

kleinbl00  ·  2665 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Boy. I don't know that I can even say anything useful. I don't know that anybody can. My personal strategy is to find a lazy portfolio, backtest it, make sure I understand the way it moves and make sure I think it'll fare okay from what I understand of the geopolitical climate for the amount of time I expect to hold it.

Which basically says I'm macro AF, and that I disregard everything but fundamentals. It's probably about as conservative as you can go and I've definitely given up some gains that way. But it's what I understand, and what makes me feel like I have a reasonable sense of cause and effect.

I think the stock market is deeply overvalued and headed for a correction. From a macro sense, from a fundamental sense, a Russell 3000 ETF does not strike me as a good value at the moment. But that's my take, my tea leaves, my entrails, not yours.

OftenBen  ·  2665 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Purely a butt-in:

I have a few grand of employer matched contributions in a TIAA account, since there is a 'correction' incoming, would that money be safer somewhere else?

kleinbl00  ·  2665 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Prolly not. If you know what that fund is invested in you could do your own research. I'm nobody's investment counselor.