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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A Question of Neighborhoods and Waverunners

So really, you're asking why CC&Rs exist?

You've got a long preamble on shit you've put up with in your life but it exists to defend and excuse this passage:

    That’s what I kept thinking to myself until I saw that the house diagonally across the street from ours has to late ‘90s, early 2000s waverunners, sitting right next to the curb, decrepit and bleached from years of neglect as they lay out in the sun. Then all of the sudden, the neighborhood suddenly felt very rough to me, and Dala got the same vibes.

It's an excusable passage. Personal watercraft owners can be stereotyped. Many CC&Rs (and some more restrictive municipal codes) require boats to be covered, or under carports, or not even on the property. Shit, many CC&Rs give you three choices of paint color and fine you if your grass is more than 3" long. It all depends on what you want. And what do you want?

Ask yourself this: if the house catty-corner had a '64 Beetle on blocks, how would you feel? It's got about the same value. It's got a similar community. But it's a car, not a pair of jetskis.

My neighbor across the street has a blue '68. He's a great guy. In his 60s. I got to know him when his hip replacement fell out of its socket last month. Neighbors I share a lawn with? One of 'em is from Bhutan. She's got a grown son in his 40s with Down's Syndrome. He likes to sing off-key. Her yard is immaculate. Other neighbor? Their driveway looks nicer than mine and they got new cars. There are also seven of them living in 1100sqft. Last week my daughter told me that when she smoked, she'd only do it outside like my neighbor. And from the front, you can't tell that they've got a blue tarp keeping the rain off the side where the siding has fallen off.

Jetskis? Those are my brother-in-law's. He owns four. No idea why - he can only ride one at a time but he gets great deals on them because as you may have noticed, the depreciation curve on jetskis is precipitously steep. I'll say this: he's got a stove that cost more than my wife's Honda because he's a contractor for rich people... and he's one of the nicest people I know.

Especially if you want to surf off Camp Pendleton because the minute you set foot on the shore the MPs will arrest you but if you've got a decent jet ski? You can surf up to about 20 feet and have some of the nicest, most deserted surfing in Southern California.

EDITED TO ADD: and I sure as shit wouldn't buy a house in this market unless I absolutely had to. You started looking right about the time pricing disconnected from fundamentals. You are now looking at a time when panic has set in. The more home improvement shows there are on TV, the less motivated you should be to buy a house.





user-inactivated  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So I think what you and goobster are saying is that Dala and I are harboring unwarranted, preconceived ideas about Waverunners. We just got home from driving through the neighborhood again and getting some dinner afterwards. Now that I know that yard is there, and expect it, it really does seem like a nice neighborhood again. I wouldn't mind living there.

I am a bit concerned about this market, especially because I'm getting some weird vibes in the job market between talking to people, job hunting, and seeing places close shop both with and without warning. That said, if this house is in good shape it is a really good deal. We're not getting our hopes too high though, because every time we see a "really good deal" and check out the house, we see a house with a "really big, fucking NOPE." We've slowed our search down to a crawl though, partially because of some of the warning signs we're seeing. Our current living situation is getting pretty cramped though and it might be hard to ride out for much longer. (I ran that last sentence by Dala to make sure she was okay with me posting it. I don't want to disparage our roommates, we love them to death, but sometimes that love can be stretched pretty thin.)

Edit: Also, in all honesty, if I saw a Beetle on blocks in a neighborhood, I'd see that as a plus. One of the houses does have what looks to be an Old Cutlass with fresh paint . . . sooo . . .

kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm saying you are harboring warranted, preconceived ideas about Waverunners but that your ideas may reflect your bias, rather than an actual indicator. I'm also saying that you are not alone in your bias.

Separate your current living situation from the financial burdens of homeownership. Do not confuse a comfort decision with a capital investment. Sure - it will suck to pay an extra $500 to not have roommates when you could be putting that towards a mortgage. But if your home value drops $20k in a year you came out $14k ahead.

And talk to blackbootz. He seems to have scored a major coup through the judicious application of government largesse. If you can buy a house without participating in the housing market, you win.

blackbootz  ·  2767 days ago  ·  link  ·  

rd95 If you make less than $32k a year and want to be my neighbor in Baltimore, there is an opportunity of a lifetime in the form of a subsidy. Those might be too specific a set of hoops for your liking (urban life, an income qualification, an owner-occupancy requirement as part of the subsidy, etc. etc.). There were two addresses as part of the program I applied for. The second one is still waiting for its future hubby and wife.

user-inactivated  ·  2767 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Interesting idea. I'll have to see if there's a similar program for something like that around here.

kleinbl00  ·  2767 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Bodymore Murderland stereotyping aside, I found Baltimore to be charming. Far nicer than Boston, NY or Portland ME.

WanderingEng  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    and I sure as shit wouldn't buy a house in this market unless I absolutely had to

Can you elaborate on this? I've been looking at buying, selling my condo in favor of a house. Prices seem fairly reasonable.

user-inactivated  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The market is going to slow down as interest rates climb. As rates climb the people with adjustable rate mortgages that were borderline able to buy will have to either sell.... NOW or get foreclosed on. This is about where we were right before things got exciting in 2007.

If you are in a good place, like the area, and don't need to move? Save like a mother fucker, know the value of the areas you want to live in, and start to look for deals at the end of the year.

I'm just some dude, not a prophet, not a financial advisor so take that for what it is worth.

kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

See, and I don't even think the interest rates will matter that much. Sure - rates go up, prices will go down as financing becomes more dear but it won't change the transactional nature of home sales. I think credit got way too goddamn easy again. Go google "subprime loans" or, for true fun'n'games, "subprime car loans" or "student loan debt" and tell me how we're going to walk this one back gently, no interest rate shenanigans necessary.

kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If you've got something to sell, sell. I can't say we're at the tippity top of the market but things are starting to look pretty bubbly. Redfin recently reported that days-on-market is eight days shorter this year than last year and in the markets I watch, prices have long since detached from reality.

Wanna see the hottest-shit neighborhood in LA? Here you go.

Median income? $42k a year. 58% renters. 8.4% with a college degree. Wikipedia used to say 80% of the 85% latino population was Mexican nationals but they don't anymore. Nonetheless, home values are increasing 8% per year and the median home price? $563k. I happen to know this weapons-grade shithole rather well as I have to live there 3-6 months out of the year. And yes - there are now well-heeled hipsters moving into the barrio responsible for LA's draconian anti-gang laws.

Do the math. You're supposed to spend no more than 28% of your income on mortgage payments. That's a $980/mo mortgage payment. If you're buying the median home with the median income and making the suggested payment, you put over $350k down - over 60% of the value of the home. How likely do you think that is?

How much more likely is it that there's loose cash buying up properties because there isn't anything else making money?

And what happens when people would rather put up with roommates than pay more than a half million dollars for this shithole?

WanderingEng  ·  2768 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Meanwhile, here's what $550k gets you here. But this is more my thought.

You make a lot of good points. I like to think that it's saner around here, but I'm not sure we're immune to booms and busts. What will it take for west coast bubbles to permanently pop?

kleinbl00  ·  2768 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Man I love Wisconsin. If I could have made that work...

Dunno how you and the missus feel about kids but my suggestion is that 1000sqft is gonna be fine for the two of you and as soon as you invoke a little one it's gonna feel tight. We did 1100sqft with the two of us and hobbies and it was tight. Then we did 1300sqft with the three of us and hobbies and it was tight. INB4 some tinyhouse choad starts talking about minimalism.

SoCal is gonna pop like a goddamn champagne cork as soon as the water's all gone. Everywhere else with a tech/med/finance community? It all comes down to the fact that companies are no longer required to make money to be worth something. The entire South Lake Union area of Seattle is testament to the fact that people go orgasmic when Amazon makes $500m profit on $32b in sales.

GM earned $1.34 a share last quarter. Their shares cost $35. Amazon will probably earn a buck this quarter (they announce tomorrow).

Their shares cost $909 right now.

user-inactivated  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Jesus. You mean to tell me that people are so desperate for housing they are considering CYPRUS FUCKING PARK?

kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

blackbootz  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    And what happens when people would rather put up with roommates than pay more than a half million dollars for this shithole?

Bubbles pop?

Holy shit you know it's one hell of a shithole when they won't even post pictures of the indoors.

kleinbl00  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Dude. They didn't even line the shots up with the horizon. It's like the Blair Witch Listing - run by with your camera phone, plaster it in burst mode and post the five least offensive shots you catch.

When this blog starts to look familiar, we're nearing the end.

Keep your eye out for pergraniteel.

blackbootz  ·  2767 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Pergraniteel. I learn something new everyday.

user-inactivated  ·  2769 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Holy shit you know it's one hell of a shithole when they won't even post pictures of the indoors.

lol. That's like half the houses listed in our price range. We've learned long ago that if there are four photos or less for a house, it's not worth seeing.