My reasoning is multi-factorial, but it mainly rests on exactly this:

Chevy has to sell the Bolt for $37k because they need to make money on it. Tesla has proven time and time again that they can sell cars at a loss and Wall Street throws roses at them. Presume the Model 3 costs Tesla $50k to build and they sell it for $33k. At $17k lost per car, their valuation is still $153k per car sold.

Tesla has more in common with a Ponzi scheme at this point than with an auto manufacturer. Combine this stratospheric unit loss with the fact that their CapEx is coming in hundreds of millions, if not billions, below their own estimates of what it needs to be to reach their build targets, and you have a recipe for non-delivery. The say themselves that they want to deliver 400,000 units by 2018, but it's really difficult to imagine how that could possible take place when they're so far behind on tooling the plants and everything else that capex was slated for. No matter how long a leash Wall Street gives them, the house of cards can't stand forever. Building cars is hard.