I'm having difficulty figuring out how they compile their odds. For example, NYT has Trump at 12% chance of victory. They have him at like 28% of winning FL, and a 7% chance of winning PA, with a 0% chance of winning without winning both. Not sure how you get a 12% overall chance from that. I guess they assume a strong correlation, so that if he does better than expected in one, he'll do better than expected in the other???
Do you have something to add? Or are you going to sit there and argue that a statistical compilation of every electoral poll run in the past 9 months does not reflect the true sentiment of the voting populace because, and I quote, "earth revolves around the sun"?
Statistics run on assumptions. Physics does not. The laws of nature are a function of physics. The laws of nature are the premise to the declaration of independence for the United States of America. The Earth revolves around the sun. The polls to this presidential race are as much value to a system of governance as the hyperloop is to a mag-lift. It's all built on a hidden agenda.