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comment by goobster
goobster  ·  3078 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Brexit looks likely.

I disagree. The only thing Britain gave the EU was a financial hub. Now that the British economy is tanking (and 40% of Britain's total value is the land in and around London), the Brits have nothing the EU needs.

The next problem is the Spanish election in two days... do the voters take the Brexit path, or do they double-down on the enormous benefits they have reaped from their recent economic turnaround, and keep the incumbents in place?

This is the "tipping point" domino for the EU, in my mind.





kleinbl00  ·  3078 days ago  ·  link  ·  

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

5 billion pounds of imports from Germany alone, just last month. World's 5th largest economy. It's not as simple as you want it to be.

The "next problem" could be any one of a dozen things, and it's absolutely the "tipping point" for the EU in nearly everyone's mind... but Europe has to trade with itself and with others and whether you call that the EU or CheeseEaters Inc. is going to be a lengthy and expensive process that Europe is now required to go through.

snoodog  ·  3077 days ago  ·  link  ·  

According to KB's link major export of nuclear reactors, train cars, pharmacy, aircraft and photo equip.

goobster  ·  3077 days ago  ·  link  ·  

True... none of which the Brits are known for, nor do they produce a markedly superior version than others on the market.

Now put a trade wall in between your British supplier of train cars, and no trade restrictions between you and a potential Hungarian supplier... and see how quickly people move their money onto the Continent, and away from Britain.

And nations within the EU give priority to fellow EU nations, before going "offshore" for their suppliers, and...

I just don't think Britain holds any cards. At all. They bluffed, the players fanned their cards on the table, and the Brits were holding a Queen against the EU's Full House. Bam.