speaking from the '73-'82 cohort, shit that's steep
Recession of 07-09 kneecapped a lot, and I mean a LOT, of the rural jobs out here. Jobs that men were doing and are now gone. Many of these guys would rather have the wife work and deal with the drop in income than to have to admit defeat and work at the local Wall Mart or Taco Bell. The '73 people would have been mid 30's at that point, close to 40 when The Recession was over, and then not hired as the 20 year olds would work for less money and less benefits. What did not surprise me at all was the '83-'92 line. Those men went to college and put off entry into the work force. What did surprise me was the uptick in the 63-72 line. Guys my age when they lose a job are pretty much fucked unless you are at the top of a skill set.
The tidy euphemism used in finance circles is "structural unemployment." As opposed to "seasonal unemployment" or "temporary unemployment." "Temporary unemployment" is due to a downturn. "Seasonal unemployment" means the jobs will come back when the weather comes back. "Structural unemployment" means no one will ever again need to cut ice out of the Hudson to haul to the barn and cover with sawdust against the summer sun.
I wonder how much of this has to do with automation focused in the areas these men are working in? Especially considering that Blacks and to a lesser extent hispanic people have been more seriously affected than white people, and these people are more likely to be working in blue collar work. There's a lot going on here. One step closer to a post-scarcity economy? Here's hoping it's that direction and not the direction of starvation, destitution and revolt.
I'd love to think so, but the political problems are more intractable than the technological problems. We can automate the tedious work, but until we're willing to support people who are not working/stop considering it a shameful thing automating the tedious work is benefiting the wrong people.One step closer to a post-scarcity economy? Here's hoping it's that direction and not the direction of starvation, destitution and revolt.
I just had a painful, two-hour argument with my mom about runaway disability claims in the US, automation, and the future of work as ethical living. It's really, really hard to change minds. And my mom is pretty amenable to "liberal" ideas. I can't imagine what it would take to change the minds of the tens(/hundreds?) of millions of Americans not predisposed to hating welfare. Maybe all the civil unrest caused by mass unemployment? It isn't heartening to think that it requires crises to spur action.