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comment by War
War  ·  3185 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means | FiveThirtyEight

It definitely gives him some unbelieveable momentum going into the 15th. If he can make a move on the 15th, HRC should really start worrying.





thenewgreen  ·  3185 days ago  ·  link  ·  

There is a debate tonight and it just became a make or break night for both of them. Sanders has momentum and he has every right to say, "the establishment has been assuming Clinton. The people are telling you the THEY will decide who the front runner is, not YOU." -It's amazing how much spin is given to all this. The delegate count is almost always presented with her having all of the superdelagates. They will likely vote in accordance with the population. Lots of assumptions being used to bolster her campaign.

What do you think rob05c? you think Bernie has a realistic shot?

rob05c  ·  3185 days ago  ·  link  ·  

After Michigan and its ripples, I think he has a metashot. I think he has a shot at winning more votes than Hillary, but not enough to overcome her massive superdelegate pledges. Then it becomes a question of whether the superdelegates value democracy – or fear backlash – enough to switch.

We'll see. It's still an uphill battle, but all the Southern states have gone, so from here on out he'll be winning a lot. California, New York, Washington, et cetera. The current non-superdelegate counts are Hillary 748 – 542 Sanders. So yeah, I think he's got a real shot.

If he loses due to superdelegates, I will go to the state Democratic office in person on July 29 to resign my party membership. Sic Semper Tyrannis.

War  ·  3185 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Even with this momentous win that literally defied all polling it is still a long shot. He is polling much less than ideal for the 15th. He's gotta win big, and if he does then his chances become far greater than they were before. A collective win on the 15th relays two messages: He is electable, and he now has some sense of mandate by the people so to speak.

rob05c  ·  3185 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Especially Illinois. Chicago with its large minority population is a real indicator city/state. It's going to be hard to win overall on the 15th because of Florida, though. He'll lose Florida massively, due to its elderly population. There really isn't even a hope there.