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To be fair, it had become a textbook problem by the time I was studying probability, and I'm not sure I could give an adequate explanation without saying "Bayes theorem".
Sure. But you didn't write a column for Parade, either. There's "math" and there's "math education" and if your regular audience is the guys and girls who mostly glance at your writing on their way towards finding Hidden Valley Ranch coupons, "Bayes theorem, you fools" is doing no justice to your readers. She's on the back page next to the horoscopes, FFS.