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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  3338 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: AP INVESTIGATION: Nuclear smugglers sought extremist buyers

ahem

So the first thing is that if you have cesium 137 or weapons-grade uranium and you didn't buy it, the only people who you can sell to are extremists. It's not like Habitat for Humanity is in the nuke business. North Korea? Iran? Not only do they have centrifuges but if they get caught it totally fucks up their sanction-space.

The next thing is that the Russian Mafia has been selling anything that isn't bolted down (and lots of things that are) since the fall of the Soviet Union. They can't sell submarines to the Cartels anymore because the cartels have gone indigenous. People have been freaked out about the former Soviet Union's nuclear stockpiles since before Yeltsin was hunkered down in the Kremlin.

So it comes down to this: It would be amazing if the Mafiya hadn't sold some nasty shit to some nasty folx at some point in the past 20-plus years. that said nasty shit hasn't been deployed by said nasty people is probably a combination of timing and the general forbearance of the human race. Contrary to popular opinion, there has yet to be a mullah that condones nuclear weapons.

ISIS? ISIS is filthy rich, at least as far as "extremists" go. If you've got expensive contraband, they're the guys. You really gonna go sell uranium to Boko Haram? The Houthis? No, you go for the dudes with oil wells. Not that this makes them discerning buyers bent on world destruction, it just makes them more likely marks.

'member Doc Brown and the Libyans and their pinball machine parts? That's how much I'm worried about ISIS and nuclear material. Dirty bombs are effective as a scare tactic once and then everyone realizes that 50g of cesium 137 dispersed in a bus station is like five chest x-rays. Weapons-grade uranium? 'k, great. Better have a pretty good idea how to use it and a rag-tag bunch of al qaeda in Iraq holdovers don't. Full stop.





user-inactivated  ·  3338 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    So the first thing is that if you have cesium 137 or weapons-grade uranium and you didn't buy it, the only people who you can sell to are extremists. It's not like Habitat for Humanity is in the nuke business.

If I had my hands on hot cesium 137 or weapons-grade uranium, and all I wanted to do with it was make money, the US government would be the first buyer I'd go looking for. Buying it and disposing of it, thereby keeping it out of the hands of extremists and encouraging anyone else looking to sell DIY nuke supplies to bring it to them too is a much better strategy than arresting/killing me and thereby proving the extremists are the only people you want to try selling the stuff to.

I'm perfectly willing to accept a response of "and that's why no one trusts you to sell their DIY nuke supplies, bfv."

kleinbl00  ·  3338 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So...

(1) That's what this is for. This is a road that was open when I was a kid, but is now behind military fence and guard towers. I have it on good authority that this facility exists to process Russian nuclear material. There's no mention of it anywhere I can find.

(2) Presumes that you aren't guilty of anything already because if, say, you are wanted for murder and racketeering by Interpol... well, you might think twice about approaching a sovereign government with your stolen isotopes.

user-inactivated  ·  3338 days ago  ·  link  ·  

This is a great post. You did forget the part that for the same price of the "nuclear" material they can hijack four airliners and slam them into monuments/skyscrapers. Hell, I'm still in shock that nobody had blown up a semi full of explosives on a bridge yet. That goes to show you how hard it is to really do harm on a big scale like that. Not saying it can't happen, only saying it is rare and there are safeguards in place for the most part. The Fear of this type of attack is worse than the actual ability to pull it off. Nukes are big scary almost existential threats, but the real stuff people can do that can mess us up does not really cost all that much, and the price of failure, hell even success, is much lower.