Speaking of Uber, how the fuck is Uber worth $40 BILLION? Caterpillar is worth $45 Billion. Ford has a market cap of $55B. Ford also had $142 BILLION in income last year. Tell me again how an app that has no real product is worth the same as a company that takes in $142 Billion a year? And how the hell is this not the sign of a stock bubble like we had in '97?
So check this out. I love this. You know how Warren Buffet will buy things because he thinks they're worth money in the long run? Turns out that's not actually common sense, it's "firm foundation theory." on the other hand, it turns out Greater Fool Theory is not only a thing, it's the fundamental principle John Maynard F'ng Keynes used to explain the stock market. Keynes straight up said that it doesn't matter what a stock is worth, it's what you can sell it for. In other words, Uber is worth $40B because the consensus is there are enough idiots in the stock market that Uber stock could be sold for $40B. This is how Reddit ends up with a half billion dollar valuation - the VC firms in the Valley figure there are enough idiots out there buying stock that a scandal-ridden BBS full of creepshots and racism is worth half a billion dollars to Ma and Pa Daytrader. Kind of amazing when you think about it, but also accurate - somebody made a stone-cold killing off of Pets.com. It just wasn't most people. SO: Uber is worth $40B for exactly long enough for someone big to say "no way is Uber worth $40B" and someone else to short Uber to $30B and inverse tech ETFs to push Uber to $20B and "consumer sentiment" to push it down to $10B and before long it's a joke but in the mean time... Yeah. One of the analysts I follow recently pointed out that Shake Shack has a higher valuation than the entire coal industry. Valuations clearly aren't based on fundamentals.
And this explains how Whatsapp and Snapchat have a stock valuation worth more than the cost of the servers.Keynes straight up said that it doesn't matter what a stock is worth, it's what you can sell it for. In other words, Uber is worth $40B because the consensus is there are enough idiots in the stock market that Uber stock could be sold for $40B.
francopoli exactly, this. I don't disagree with you at all. It all needs to just die in a fire. I like that phrase. I should use it more. Perhaps on another site that shall not be named, because those users do not contribute useful content. / end total rant of everything wrong in the world.
A crazy taxi company that does not own its fleet and is at the mercy of randoms who find the service exciting and worth the cost. As soon as people get bored with Uber and Lyft they will collapse like MySpace. This is why I NEVER invest in websites or services that depend on user generated content.
At the mercy of randoms? I'm not sure. With a valuation this high, marketing is a piece of cake. Also, once widespread adoption has been maintained, the network is taken hostage and/or is too unwilling to jump boat (see: Facebook with the greater mid-older generation). One shouldn't make the decision, in my opinion, to refrain from investing in certain stocks-type however fragile, especially because of the volatile nature of it that enables it to surprise the market. Also, insider information is valuable in the right hands and is always a possibility.