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2006. It's been argued by many a monetary theorist that you can't have bull markets without bear markets and the goal isn't to keep things going up up up up up, it's to keep things stable. It worries me a little that monetary theorists talk about money the way forest service guys talk about controlled burns but I've also seen a conflagration or two in my life, both literally and figuratively. MY GUESS - the US is in better shape right now than any country in Europe or Asia. I reckon they go ahead and raise rates a quarter point anyway because it'll hurt more elsewhere. Mauldin & Co are pretty well convinced Abe started the currency war in 2013 so this is just an escalation.