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comment by mk
mk  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Heh, promise kept
Couldn't a recovery in energy prices be a sign of a recovering economy? Demand has returned?

That precipitous drop at the end of Bush's term wasn't exactly due to a successful energy policy.





cliffelam  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Hmmm, no idea why you think bush's energy policy was not successful.

I would certainly say it was not aggressive enough in granting licenses, preventing public land lockup of vital resources, and not being forward looking enough for useful alternative energy (e.g. - nuclear).

But compared to what we got now - licenses for drilling at 10% of the pre-PBO rate, etc - it looks pretty good to me.

-XC

mk  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Not really comparing the policies. I'm just commenting on the most likely factor in that drop and recovery of prices, -a large recession.

As far as policies, I think the US is going to be sitting pretty in a few years. A huge US natural gas supply is coming on line, and Obama doesn't seem to be getting in the way of that.

cliffelam  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
It's already on-line and, weirdly, driving manufacturing back to the US from overseas. Strange world.

Chinese demand has outstripped our recession, I think. Plus the feds won't permit much new drilling and no new refineries will ever be built b/c of the EPA and local NIMBYs.

Sad.

_XC

mk  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Honestly, I'd like to see oil choked a bit. It's an old and dirty tech that we would do better to get more independence from. Necessity is the mother of invention, and as long as oil remains cheap, there isn't going to be much motivation. Of course, we don't want crippling high prices, but I don't think we are anywhere near that scenario.
cliffelam  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
You should talk to people making not very much money -they're getting killed.

We have thousands of years of easily accessible coal in this country and probably darn near as much oil. Probably making it "clean enough" is easier and cheaper than any alternative.

-XC

mk  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
    You should talk to people making not very much money -they're getting killed.

We could start by giving the oil subsidies back to them as a tax break. That might ease some pain. Every oil company is in the black.

I agree it might be cheaper and easier atm, but the goal is to develop alternatives to get that competitive. That takes investment, and considering the possible benefits, I don't think we have been very serious about it:

http://pre.cloudfront.goodinc.com/posts/full_1299596576_d235...

cliffelam  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Most of the people not making much money already don't pay income tax, so you're in EITC area. Which I think is a bad thing.

The "subsidies" are mostly tax breaks. I'm a fan of fewer of those, you betcha.

-XC

mk  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Fair enough. Well, maybe put the cash into updating our mass transit system. Economic stimulus in the construction, and the poor have more alternatives to pumping gas.

As an aside, if there was a high-speed rail between Detroit and Chicago, I'd visit Chicago twice as much.

cgod  ·  4614 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Expanded domestic production of oil can't do much to change the price at the pump (a few cents would be and optimistic forecast) because oil is a global commodity for which the price is set by a syndicate (OPEC). We can never drill our way out of high gas prices. Alternative fuels will in most cases continue to have small effects on energy prices as long as they are a small part of our energy mix.

Nuclear might be good if we could provide in on a grand scale, but I don't think that even the most optimistic forecast for nuclear are close to what would be needed to change energy prices in a significant manner.