It seems fairly obvious that if you condense the super-rich into smaller and smaller areas (trick them into spending more money on less space, as these skycondos are essentially doing), then logically there is more housing space left for everyone else. More space, less competition, lower prices. That's theoretically the domino effect. So the super-rich flee to the sky, the medium-super-rich have more options on Long Island, the pretty-fucking-rich move back into the rest of Manhattan and suddenly Brooklyn is a bit cheaper. Or something. On paper it makes sense to me. In practice, you've identified a problem which I agree with -- it's too abrupt. Also, this sort of thing assumes a trivial cost of moving, which is false. But over a long time, it may have an effect on the composition of neighborhoods.
It seems equally obvious that the "super-rich" aren't likely to allow themselves to be condensed. Anyone who can choose between a $7m condo in Manhattan or a private island in the Caribbean isn't particularly looking for "cozy." If they're building up, it's so they can piss down on the poor not because they're trying to reduce their footprint. Lemme tell you another story: 1100 Wilshire. Built in '86 during a similar "build moar and taller" boom, 1100 Wilshire has been a ghost structure for most of its existence, never more than 10% occupied. However, during the go-go housing boom of 2005-2007, some fucktard came up with the idea to turn it into condos (never mind that there weren't any grocery stores downtown at the time). Better yet, they'd charge an additional $50,000 for every floor up you went. "Exclusivity" don'chaknow. Sales crested at about 18%, and then everybody who bought in sued because the listed square footage was a lie. It was settled out of court. So now you have a formerly-vacant office building that becomes a currently-vacant condo building. What do? Well, what 1100 Wilshire did is what everybody does: they get renters in just so the place doesn't look like a ghost town. And those renters, by and large, are spoiled children from USC. So maybe, just maybe, 1100 Wilshire is taking away pressure to keep the USC dorms from being gentrified. But you know what? There's shit-tons of neighborhoods being gentrified around DTLA and the guys buying into 1100 Wilshire are three or four degrees removed from the guys buying in Echo Park. Now, of course, prices are up through the roof on ridiculous DTLA condos because the foreigners are swooping in. But nowhere, no how in any aspect of this discussion did it have anything whatsoever to do with gentrification.It seems fairly obvious that if you condense the super-rich into smaller and smaller areas (trick them into spending more money on less space, as these skycondos are essentially doing), then logically there is more housing space left for everyone else.
I think the Washington Post etc thinks they can be tricked into doing both. I'll stop arguing -- I don't really know what to believe, and the headline does seem wrongheaded at first glance. Further, if what b_b mentioned is true, then the whole thing is a ridiculous farce. What the hell is the point of having art or jewelry if it's in another country? God.It seems equally obvious that the "super-rich" aren't likely to allow themselves to be condensed. Anyone who can choose between a $7m condo in Manhattan or a private island in the Caribbean isn't particularly looking for "cozy." If they're building up, it's so they can piss down on the poor not because they're trying to reduce their footprint.
I've heard elsewhere that it's not really New Yorkers buying these condos. They described them on Morning Edition as "the world's most expensive safe deposit boxes." Apparently, if you're super rich in the Mid East, Russia, or Asia, it's a lot easier to buy a $10M condo in NY, and use it to park your art and jewelry than to have it unprotected in your home country. They don't free up space for anyone when they're neither moving population around, nor adding population to, the city. In fact, the Times had a story about the penthouse in 432, It's a $95M behemoth that was bought by a couple hedge fund managers as a place to have parties occasionally.
Heard the same on NPR. And they keep building these, but there isn't really any demand for them. So now there are a bunch of really expensive apartments that nobody's actually living in, next too a bunch of really expensive apartments that nobody's using.