This is what I've been saying for weeks. The most (only?) confusing thing about the Gaza mess is that Israel refuses to win or even fight the PR battle intelligently.
PR battles are only necessary to win if you need friends. Europe has never been a friend of Israel. The Middle East has never been a friend of Israel. Asia is Muslim. And the United States will always back Israel. It was widely reported that Russia was "losing the PR battle" in the South Ossetia War. This turned out not to matter much as Russia don't give a fuck about public relations. There is no solution for Israel that makes them look good and also protects their security. And that's why they continue to kill children in Gaza in full view of the world.
But that plane crash a few weeks ago? That was a PR disaster for Russia and it flipped a couple of Europeans to the anti- side in Obama's ongoing sanctions muddle. Russia not giving a fuck about PR relations in '08 evidently does not mean that in '14 they can comfortably bypass the whole concept. Israel not giving a fuck now (or for that matter in '08) may be trouble in 10 years, or 20, or never. But it wouldn't cost them much to at least say semi-friendly things to the world while they continue to secure and expand their borders.
Eh. We nuked an Iranian airliner in 1988. News for a few weeks, then nobody cared. The Russians nuked a US airliner in 1983. News for a few weeks, then nobody cared. The Russians plugged another US airliner in 1978 and that shit didn't even get mentioned in 1983. People give far less of a fuck than you think. Expressing outrage permits disinterested parties from having to actually do something about the problem. PROTIP: Sanctions don't matter until they've been in place for years. We've had sanctions against Cuba for 50 years now. We've had sanctions against Iran for 30. Iraq was under heavy sanction at the time of our invasion. And, just as an aside, we didn't even halt grain sales to the USSR after they shot down a plane carrying a standing Congressman.
The sanctions don't matter, per se, (though they could if we had slightly more balls) but they're costing Russia capital now. It's real money. Does Putin mind? Not much, but someone does. And it's going to force Russia into an unfavorable position in negotiations with China. It's real stuff, even if like you say the PR battle doesn't seem to matter at the moment. Putin has intra-Russian media sewn up anyway.
I still think you're overestimating it. The Crimea is a big, expensive boondoggle for Russia. That was readily evident to anyone with a basic understanding of geopolitics. However, the Falklands were a big, expensive boondoggle for Argentina and the UK and both parties eagerly engaged. For Galtieri, it was a distraction from the pigfuck he'd made of the economy. For Thatcher, it was a distraction from the pigfuck she'd made out of the employment situation. Putin didn't take Crimea because it was a money-making venture, he took it because it gave him a nationalist flag to wave and distract people from domestic issues. Isolation never hurts leaders. Take a look at North Korea. As far as China, China don't give a fuck about the European side of things and besides, they trade a lot more with Kazakhstan than they do with Russia. Gives them a proxy where anything Russia does doesn't matter. None of which has much to say about Israel, whose primary trade partner is the United States, and whose primary exports are weapons bits and cut diamonds. You're talking about an economy in which Israel is the clean end of Lord of War and Blood Diamond respectively. A few dead brown kids aren't gonna nudge that an inch.
North Korea doesn't have an economy. Russia does, but it's shrinking and we stuck sanctions on all the banks (except the big one, since god forbid we actually suffer a bit to make them suffer). As I said, Putin's sitting just fine. But there have to be some Russian financiers and CEOs getting worried. -- It really may not matter to Israel. They get what weapons they need from us anyway, and are continuing to do so. Crazy hypothetical for fun: Israel continues to piss the world off so much that the bad/good Gaza polls of the American people swing even farther toward Palestine. At what point does the 2016 election have a (small) anti-Israel component to it? Would that seriously cost that candidate too much money to even consider it?Isolation never hurts leaders. Take a look at North Korea.
The Jews got blown out of the Middle East back in Biblical times and Europe back in the 1940s. As a consequence they headed back to the Middle East, which had been destabilized and colonized by European nations. While Europe drank deep of Arab oil the Arabs decided the Jews were offensive and thus pursued a policy of mutual annihilation. The Jews want to survive more than the Arabs want to kill them, though, so it's taken a long damn time to settle. You should also know that there are: - 6.2 million jews in Israel (75% of the population) - 5.4 million Jews in the United States (1.8% of the population) - 1.1 million Jews in all of Europe (0.22% of the population) - 1.1 million Jews in the entire rest of the world Which is why Europe and the US never see eye-to-eye on Israel. There were 9.5 million Jews in Europe in 1933 but Germany, Austria, Poland and Russia killed 6 million of them. And, it should be noted, did not give them back their stolen land, money, possessions or jobs when the war was over. As a consequence, the whole "you're taking their land" argument against Israel from Europe (or the United States, for that matter) doesn't come from a position of moral authority. The fact that the money and weapons for both sides of the conflict come from Europe and the United States doesn't help either.
I don't think it can legitimately come from any nation on the planet at this point, depending on how far back you take your history. The US and European just happen to be the most recent and recently egregious examples. Any thoughts on how this is going to all play out? last I heard Israel had taken their troops and gone home, but was still shooting rockets into Gaza. As a consequence, the whole "you're taking their land" argument against Israel from Europe (or the United States, for that matter) doesn't come from a position of moral authority.
But in the grand scheme of things does that matter? Israel has been slowly, progressively securing the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean for 70 years now. They'll eventually have more of it but it'll never matter in the long run. It's going to play out with interfaith violence, terrorism, historical and biblical justification and the wholesale death of innocents. I have Right of Return. I could get that piece of the West Bank or whatever. And I would no more live in Israel than I would in Serbia, Lebanon, Burma or Nigeria. There are spots of the world where killing each other is just part of the culture. Israel is an intractable problem. There's no happy ending. It is a concentrated touchstone for all the evil that went into the Holocaust, all the evil that went into the Crusades. It will never play out, it will just ebb and flow in an endless tide of blood.Any thoughts on how this is going to all play out? last I heard Israel had taken their troops and gone home, but was still shooting rockets into Gaza.
And just to add to what you said about Jews not getting their land back, many of them were killed when they returned to their native lands (not by Germans). Imagine being liberated after the living hell of auswitz only to have poles murder your family. The reality is many nations hated the Germans, but didn't really mind the deportations. It's a fact that history has tried to obscure for the sake of repair.
It should be noted that 'Biblical times' is actually a bit of an understatement.