I am an atheist, and gay, but when I was a child (before I realized I was gay,) I went to a church under the Southern Baptist Convention. My parents and great grandparents went there. I decided that I wanted to be baptized. The preacher of the church, however, resigned when the church would not increase his pay. I waited for a few years as the church went through several preachers. Ultimately, they chose a preacher and baptizements would start again (I don't know why a deacon or other church official didn't do them). The night before I was to be baptized, the preacher was found in a motel, doing drugs (the specific was never mentioned, but crack and meth are popular choices), and cheating on his wife. I was never baptized. Apparently some things just aren't meant to be.
I anticipate that the UMC will sanction same-sex marriages at their general conference in either 2016 or 2020. The reconciling movement for full inclusion within the UMC is becoming increasingly more influential than the evangelical caucuses every year. The Frank Schaefer saga, and the push to defrock other UMC pastors that perform same-sex ceremonies, I believe is more out of desperation than because it represents a prevailing view. I think even as pastors and bishops push back against the reconciling movement for full inclusion, there is increasingly an acceptance that the change is going to happen. It's a shame it hasn't happened yet, because the UMC was historically on the edge of social progress, as denominations go--John Wesley himself authorized women to preach back in 1761 when it was unthinkable in other denominations. From what I know, I expect the Mormons and Catholics will be the last hold-outs.