a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by rob05c
rob05c  ·  3834 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: We Will End Disability by Becoming Cyborgs

The year 2064 is from the article; not my estimate.

But I do think it's a reasonable, conservative, estimate.

    massive technological advancements today

Ah, but which ones? That's the hard part.

Technology is hard to predict. Will we make signifigant progress in 50 years? Definitely. But to select a single advancement and say "we will achieve this" is like playing the lottery.

I mean, if you had asked in the mid 90's, 'Will consumer electronics have 10ghz chips by 2014?' Almost anyone would have said 'undoubtedly.' If you had asked anyone in 1970 if we'd have a moon base by 2014, who would have bet against? But we hit some unexpected walls. NASA got unexpected funding cuts. Technological progress is unpredictable.