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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  4717 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What are your predictions for 2012? Presidential elections, protests, the EU...
1) Euro goes two-tier (Germany, France, Scandinavia in upper tier; Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain in lower tier) at substantial expense. Increased volatility as money leaves PIGS in favor of other markets.

2) UK experiences unrest and volatility as its banking sector implodes under its own weight.

3) Volatility increases in US market, but dollar strengthens against Euro as a shelter currency.

4) Doubts about robustness of the Chinese market continue and increase but nothing shakes out.

5) US and Iranian saber-rattling continues until at some point a empty treaty is reached that allows both sides to pretend they won concessions from the other.

6) Economic growth continues to stagnate but economists find some way to spin any number as a victory. Expect to hear the phrase "structural unemployment" a lot.

7) US re-elects Obama but gives House and Senate to the Republicans. Gridlock continues.

8) "Occupy" movement branches out into squatting in foreclosed homes, which becomes a sticky issue for all sides.

9) Gold bubble bursts as the world recognizes that it ends not with a bang but a whimper.

10) Rupert Murdoch forced to resign as chairman of News Corporation.

11) Another major paper goes online-only or under.

12) Warren Buffett loses a raft of money.





fr33lunch  ·  4715 days ago  ·  link  ·  
thenewgreen  ·  4716 days ago  ·  link  ·  
All of these make sense to me except the Warren Buffet one. What makes you think he's going to lose money?
kleinbl00  ·  4716 days ago  ·  link  ·  
I think that he's been buying a lot based on the stability of the old economy. He's not much of a crashplan kinda guy and I think 2012 is where, financially, TSHTF.

He's a blue chip kinda guy and I think blue chips are gonna take a beating.

thenewgreen  ·  4716 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Really? What blue chips in particular do you see taking big hits? Or less specifically, what industries? I just feel like you don't get the track record he has without being able to shed your safe presumptions. I could be wrong but I'd be surprised if he was caught over exposed. Here's a list of 5 bluechips he recommended in 2009:

1. GE

2. Microsoft

3. Godman Sachs

4. Caterpiller Inc

5. Disney

I could see #3 taking a hit but the rest seem stable long term bets imo.

b_b  ·  4717 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Even half of those things coming to pass would make for a dismal year; I can't argue with any of them, though :/ The only one I would look forward to is 9, the rest I would fear or be indifferent to. I hate the gold mongers who go on TV to talk about how gold is "real" and money is "fake" (I'm looking at you Ron Paul), as if they've never taken community college level Econ 101. All money is abstract, and commodities tend to rise in a poor economy. End of story. I hope all the cash for gold assholes go bust; I won't feel sorry for them.
fr33lunch  ·  4715 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Those CFG assholes are selling off all their gold as their infomercials frighten old people to convert their bank accounts into bullion.

On a related note: One of my friends owns a jewelry store. He hasn't made much in jewelry sales over the past year or two, because of the economy. Every week he buys a little gold here and there and sells it the next week when the price is higher. This has kept his lights on for the last 6 months.