How strong a suspicion are we talking here? Also, given the number of people creating apps, isn't there a finite window before the next thing comes along that facebook will be throwing 3 billion at?
I don't think they're idiots. If we all think they're idiots, they know something we don't. A finite window? Sure. Then again, how old is Dropbox? six years? Apple offered them "nine digits" in 2009 and by 2011 they were making $250m in revenue PER YEAR. Right now, they might be making a billion a year, they might not. So. If SnapChat figures they could be making $1b a year by 2016, taking $3b from Facebook is a fool's bet. Personally, I don't see SnapChat making $1b a year by the time the sun goes out, but IPOs don't care. Twitter will make about $40m this year but Wall Street values the company at eighteen fucking billion dollars. Amazon, as mentioned, has never really made money at all but has a market valuation of $165 BILLION.