a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment
uhsguy  ·  532 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Interest-Only Loans Helped Commercial Property Boom. Now They’re Coming Due.

Its not a crisis yet, but it will be. If rates stay this way for 3-5 years a lot of businesses will be in big trouble not just real estate. Right now the interest rate inversion is suppressing rates by 100-200 bps because the market expects rates to come down soon. If that expectation goes away then you will be in the 10% range really quick. Its not just real estate either, a lot of business that skirted by on low interest rates but have high debt load are going to find out the hard way that they weren't actually viable. Thats why I think a bad recession has to happen soon. That being said soon could be 1-2 years because right now were riding the irrational exuberance roller coaster.

As for your building, if its worth 1.4m but nobody is buying its not worth 1.4 mil. It might be worth 1m or it might be worth 700k, but if nobody is buying then it aint worth the asking price. Take the original price multiply by .7 for interest rates and then multiply by how ever much more you have been able to raise your asking prices since the original 1m sale and that maybe close to what its worth.