Unfortunately, employees are not offered this choice. But if they knew how badly they were being screwed by this rip-off wrapped in a humanatarian “Helps Working Families” label I think most of them would opt out.

Ha! This could be true of so many taxes. I wish to god I could opt out of most the portion of my taxes that go to DoD, for example. Unfortunately, we can't pick and choose where our collective money goes once it's taken from us, can we? (Well, actually we can if we have a very specific ideology, it seems. But for the rest of us who are in it together, I guess we're stuck.) Again, I think the important thing is empiricism, as is the case in all economic analyses. We need to look at the economic impact in other countries that have paid leave laws in place to see what impact they have (both economic impacts as well as social impacts). I don't have the time right now to do a lot of reading on the subject, but my guess is that it's not as simple as credits and debits on the paycheck (although I did enjoy reading your analysis; thank you for taking the time to pull all those numbers).

To clarify, my position is essentially that I support paid family leave, because I think part of the social contract is that we (civilized people) support children. It's the same reason I'm happy to pay property taxes to build and maintain schools, parks and museums, even though I don't have kids. If I looked strictly at the amount I pay in property tax vs. the amount I run on the track at the high school behind my house, I'm probably not getting a good deal. The social aspect is more important collectively. This isn't to say that I approve of waste; no one does. It's a tough calculus, but in this day and age where two working parents is the norm, I think it's important to think of what might benefit society in the changing landscape of the last half century. If my taxes have to subsidize maternity leave, I won't cry about it. But perhaps there could be a lifetime cap, or a mandated gap between usages, as there is with other types of welfare. Just spitballin'. I don't know.